OPEC + oil producers began their meeting on Sunday, and decided to maintain their production quotas in a particularly unstable climate, against a backdrop of uncertainty on the eve of the entry into force of new sanctions against Moscow, pillar of the alliance with Saudi Arabia.
Representatives of the thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Riyadh, and their ten allies led by Moscow, met by videoconference at midday for technical discussions, before the ministerial meeting, held in stride.
They agreed to keep the course decided in October of a reduction of two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
Russian oil, the focus of all attention
The climate is particularly troubled: Russia is headwind against the cap on the price of its oil that the European Union, the G7 and Australia have planned to put in place on Monday "or very soon after".
It is also on this day that the embargo of the European Union on Russian crude transported by sea begins, which will eliminate two thirds of its purchases in Moscow.
The objective of these measures: to deprive Moscow of the means to finance its war in Ukraine.
For OPEC+, the question is what will be the impact on the supply of Russian black gold.
Analysts from DNB Markets, a Norwegian group, mention "great uncertainty": the price of a barrel of Urals crude is currently fluctuating around 65 dollars, barely above the ceiling of 60 dollars, implying a limited short-term effect. .
But the Kremlin has warned that it will no longer deliver oil to countries that adopt this mechanism.
This puts some nations “in a very uncomfortable position: choosing between losing access to cheap Russian crude or exposing themselves to G7 sanctions”, explains Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda.