With salaries that this year will be relegated to inflation, families that are already over-financed (by the Ahora programs), service and transportation fees on the rise, and basket prices (such as food) that will continue to rise,
consumption this year will grow only 1.7%, far from the bonanza of 8.5% that it exhibited in 2022
, according to ABECEB estimates.
This slowdown is part of two years that will be very different for the Argentine economy:
in 2022, the GDP will close with a growth of 5.5%
driven by a better first semester with a slowdown in activity starting in the second;
while 2023 drags little inertia and could end in just one point.
Consumption has two key factors:
the purchasing power of wages and financing options
.
In this framework, the real salary in 2022 did not lose what was expected against inflation due to the opening of parities and permanent negotiations.
It closes the year at -0.4% for registered private workers, which partly explains the support of mass consumption and semi-durable goods.
For its part,
the extension of the Now 12, 18, 30
and all its variants, encouraged the
consumption of household appliances and electronics
as a safeguard of value, but, above all, as an
alternative to place excess pesos
in a scenario with distortion of relative prices and high inflation.
For this reason, 2022 closed with a positive balance, driven by higher consumption in the first half of the year with signs of a slowdown that began to be registered as of July.
Sales in supermarkets increased only 1% in real terms compared to 2021
, pressured by the lower purchasing power of consumers that led more families to cut expenses, opting for second brands and organizing monthly purchases to earn a few pesos from the inflation.
More than 50% of the population decreased purchases of basic goods in the food and beverage category, which would close the year with a production close to 4.1%.
For 2023, a slowdown in overall production within the sector is expected to 3.9%.
Regarding the 0km vehicle market, it closed 2022 exceeding 407 thousand units sold -6.7% above 2021-, with a record participation of 55.7% of national vehicles.
Motorcycle sales also grew 6%.
In both cases a similar behavior is expected.
look too
Despite having closed the year with the worst inflation in more than 30 years, for Gabriela Cerruti "the objective is being met"
Sergio Massa, with the highest inflation in 32 years: "Hopefully we all have the right eggs to lower it"