After having resumed an upward trend in December (5.1%),
inflation was once again a concern in January.
An acceleration in food prices, seasonal increases and various regulated prices guide the inflationary needle
towards a mark close to 6% per month,
according to analysts.
Meanwhile, the Government tries, through programs such as Fair Prices, that
inflation does not exceed 5% in January and 30% in the first half of the year
since the 2023 Budget foresees that prices increase at the rate of 60%
However, the goal looks optimistic, taking into account that throughout this year the increases in tariffs, the variation in the exchange rate (which in the last week exceeded $370), the management of the debt in pesos and the presidential elections, among other factors.
In this scenario, some consultants estimate that the end of 2023 will be similar to last year in terms of prices, when the CPI accumulated 94.8%, according to INDEC.
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) prepared by the Central Bank projects that by June of this year the CPI will be at 64.6%, which means that
by mid-year the 60%
inflation target forecast by the government for the whole year.
For now, 2023 started hard.
January, a seasonally inflationary month due to the impact of Tourism, also adds a new boost to basket prices.
The latest survey of the LCG consultancy -which measures 8,000 online products in five supermarket chains- indicates that "the food and beverage index presented monthly inflation of
4.5% average in the last 4 weeks and 5.6% point to peak
in the same period".
Regarding what happened in the third week of January and as a whole of the four previous ones, the consultant's index showed that the greatest increases were again observed in
vegetables and fruits (6.9%), followed by dairy products and eggs (5, 6%) and beverages and infusions.
In the period surveyed, the percentage of foods with increases decreased to 22% of the total.
However, this indicator "continues to accelerate", they clarified in the consultancy.
In addition, according to these records,
five of the 10 study categories are above the 5% monthly average.
Vegetables (8.9%), fruits (8.3%), dairy products and eggs (6.2%), condiments (5.8%), drinks and infusions to consume at home (5.2%).
Below are ready-to-go meals (4.7%), oils (4.5%), baked goods (3.5%), sugar (2.2%) and meats (2.2%).
Another indicator of the inflationary impact on the family table is the basket surveyed by the user entity Consumidores Libres.
In the first fortnight of January, the result of this survey stated that the increases -in the area of the City of Buenos Aires- averaged 2.27% with Fruits and Vegetables leading the rise and "well above average inflation".
Regarding the evolution of the general index for the month, the economists warn - armed with their first estimates - that the average rise in prices will reach
5.5% or 6%.
For example, from Equilibra, the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina pointed out that the projection is somewhat higher than that of December due to the strong increases implemented in regulated and seasonal prices.
"We project a rise in the month of around
5.5%
," said the analyst.
The LCG consultancy also expects that the summer months continue with the dynamics of December: "we project a January-February two-month period with inflation that does not exceed 5.5% per month," it said in a statement.
For the Ferreres&Asociados study, the last weeks measured gave an increase of 3.9%.
Within this result,
food and beverages registered an average increase of 4.1%.
Taking this base into account, the forecast is that
January ends with a rise close to 5%
, they estimate in that consultancy.
Also for the Eco Go consultancy, the latest records of food and beverages show that they will boost the item at a monthly rate of 4.4%, if a variation of 0.8% is applied for the remaining weeks of the month.
And in addition, the consultant warns that other items have a special incidence on the inflation of the month:
increases in prepaid (6.5%), fuel (2%), and gas, electricity and water rates (14.1%, 19 .6% and 20.1% respectively), domestic service (6.5%), bus and train fares in AMBA (between 20% and 70% depending on the service),
among others.
Finally, from the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, they assure that "taking into account the dynamics of the last weeks, January would close with a rise of
6.3%
- the highest data since October-. In that case, the interannual variation would be located at 99.3%," he said.