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Real estate market: what will happen to property prices this year?


There are signs that the decline in values ​​is slowing. But the rise in the dollar in recent weeks once again sows doubts. What do real estate agents and developers expect?

The rise in the dollar - which touched $387 at the end of January to later drop and trade this Thursday around $377 - brought property prices back into focus.

Faced with a scenario of instability in the currency in which the properties are sold, the question that buyers and investors ask is

whether the values ​​will continue to fall or whether they have already reached a floor.

Today's photo shows that the drop in real estate prices is showing

a slowdown

and that, since October, they have tended to stabilize.

According to an analysis of the advertisements of the Zonaprop real estate portal, sales prices in the City of Buenos Aires decreased by 0.3% so far this year and the value of

the average square meter was US$ 2,193.

 Thus, January was the

fourth month that recorded a slowdown

in the fall.

That same report specified that the value of a studio apartment is, on average, US$95,266;

that a 50-square-meter (m2) two-room apartment is worth US$114,863 and a 70-m2 three-room apartment reaches US$161,600.

The volume of downward repriced apartments in January was 25%

, 9 points below the maximum of October 2021, according to the portal.

In general, real estate market players agree that the percentage of "retail" that owners accept from buyers to consolidate a sale is on the decline: the average discount made is between 5% and 8% on properties that are already They were at market value.


Ariel Champanier

, CEO of RE/MAX Premium, "until there are no mortgage loans and people have no savings capacity, prices will not go up again."

He even predicted that

2023 "will be marked by the stabilization of values ​​and the reactivation of the real estate market."

The real estate expert was convinced that "prices

will not be affected by this update of the dollar because properties have been falling for 4 years and at the beginning of 2022 they hit a floor."

"We believe that the buyer knows that prices have dropped enough to go out and buy, which somewhat explains the

behavior in this devaluation, unlike the others where demand did fall

," Champanier remarked.

In accordance with his vision, "the used apartments had to adjust their prices because people need the dollar bill to buy them, while in the projects from the well, a similar unit can be accessed for the same price and in installments."

The analyzes carried out every month by the University of San Andrés, with statistics from Mercado Libre, coincide in the diagnosis: they seem to be suggesting "

a certain slowdown in the price drop in the market for apartments for sale,

with the exception of GBA Oeste ”, noted his latest report.

When considering interannual variations (January 2023 compared to January 2022), this survey observed falls in the price in dollars per m2 of


of 8% in CABA, 4.5% in North GBA, 6.7% in GBA South, and 8% in GBA West.

For their part, the year-on-year falls for the


in CABA, GBA North, South and West were 6%, 3%, 3% and 7.7%, respectively, compared to January 2022.

Other factors, in addition, would be indicating the path towards a stabilization of prices, or at least in an cessation of the fall.


and sale operations have been much more active

in recent months, practically

at 2018 levels

and with prices that are 35% below.

According to the latest registry of the College of Notaries of the Federal Capital, in December 2022 -for the first time after four years- more than 4,253 monthly sales were notarized.

Building is business in dollars

On the other hand, this year began with

the cost of construction measured in dollars

with a decrease of 7.1%.

That is, building today costs 37% less than in April 2018 and 23% below the 2012-2022 average. 

Christian Leupold, commercial manager of Ávilis Real Estate, with projects for houses in the North zone and apartments in CABA, estimated the average construction price

 at US$800 per m2,

although in some buildings it can drop to US$700. , from 2019 to this part it is still business to build.

It is still competitive," said the businessman.

On the situation of real estate prices, Real Estate Report analysts highlight

the "great polarization of values" that exists in buildings with similar characteristics according to the different areas.

In this sense, they state that, for example, in Quilmes, the m2 costs US$2,200, while a similar building in Belgrano R costs US$3,428.

This polarization has deepened since the 1990s, when almost all properties cost US$1,000 per m2, says Germán Gómez Picasso, an RI analyst.

Meanwhile, his partner, José Rozados, maintains that "currently the security factor greatly influences the real estate price."

And he adds that today the only parties that trade above US$2,000 are San Isidro, Vicente López and Tigre.


look also

Property sales: 2022 was the best year since 2018

Properties: is it a good time to buy or should you wait?

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-02-02

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