Analysts and private consultancies recalculated inflation projections downward.
For December 2022, they estimated an average rise in retail prices of 5.5% per month and inflation was 5.1%.
For January they estimated that monthly inflation will be 5.6% (Indec will release the measurement on Tuesday the 14th), while they project 5.5% for February, with average inflation during the first semester of around 5.7% (0 .2 points lower than what they forecast a month ago).
And a full-year rate of 97.6% year-over-year (0.9 percentage points below the previous survey's forecast).
Those who best predicted this variable in the short term also expect inflation of 5.6% for January but 95.2% for 2023 (5.9 pp less than the December survey).
"Regarding the last survey, the analysts corrected downward the expected inflation values for all months" of 2023, according to the survey of market expectations (REM) published by the Central Bank (BCRA).
However, they raised the inflation forecast for 2024 to 79.6% year-on-year (4.6 points), while they reduced the inflation forecast by 0.8 points to 50.3% for 2025.
The BCRA report corresponds to the results of the survey carried out between January 27 and 31, 2023 by 40 participants, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina.
In relation to economic activity, consultants and analysts maintained that the real variation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 will be 0.5%.
Meanwhile, for 2024 they expect economic growth of 1.0% yoy (-0.4 pp compared to the value of the previous survey).
For 2025, they project a variation of 2.0% of real GDP.
The monthly average nominal wholesale exchange rate ($/US$) on business days was $182.24 per dollar in January 2023. The REM forecast indicates a monthly increase of $10.05 (+5.5% monthly ) per dollar up to $192.30 per dollar in February. At the same time, they expect an increase of 89.6% for December 2023, ($327.75 per dollar).
Regarding unemployment, the REM estimates that open unemployment for the fourth quarter of 2022 would have been 7.3%.
It would rise to 7.5% for the first quarter of 2023 (no change compared to the previous REM), and it would end in the fourth quarter of this year at 7.8% (0.3 points than in the previous survey).
