Discussions between the International Monetary Fund and the Argentine authorities on the fourth revision of the program have already
begun and this week a delegation
from the organization will travel to Buenos Aires to advance the talks for
a new disbursement of US$5.4 billion.
The technical teams are already
virtually reviewing
the numbers of the economy in the last stretch of 2022 -the period that includes the fourth review-- and, although it is estimated that the goals of the program would have been met by the end of the year, emphasis will be placed
in the panorama that they project for this 2023, which appears more difficult.
As a spokesperson for the Fund pointed out on Monday, "the work and communication between the IMF technical team and the authorities
continues smoothly
on all relevant issues and initiatives."
"In line with previous reviews, the technical discussions on the fourth review of the program have begun in a hybrid format," he added, that is, virtually and in person.
In this regard, he noted that "a
small technical team from the IMF
is expected to visit Buenos Aires this week to continue these discussions, and that this will be followed by a visit by the authorities to Washington, DC towards the end of the month to finalize the work. "
technical".
The spokesman did not specify if Luis Cubeddu, the head of the delegation for Argentina, would travel to Buenos Aires, but it was estimated that if the delegation was "small" he would not be among the members.
In any case, Cubeddu could follow all the deliberations from Washington.
As usual, the Fund officials will meet with the economic team of Minister Sergio Massa and will advance in the review of the numbers to see if Argentina reached the goals to which it has committed in the program.
Shortly before Christmas, the agency's executive board had given the green light to the third review, which lasted until September.
The fiscal and monetary goals as of September 30
were met,
the Fund reported at the time, saying that the objectives "were on track" by the end of the year, the period that the fourth review analyzes.
Although they applied a waiver or waiver for the
"trick" of the multiplicity of types of dollars,
they estimated that it was a temporary measure that would be lifted as soon as possible.
At that time they pointed out that although there had been
"advances",
the Argentine macroeconomic situation "is still fragile" and warned that "a solid implementation of the program is essential for the future".
They pointed in particular to the fiscal adjustment, which is expected to close 2022 with a
deficit of 2.5% of GDP
and to be reduced to 1.9% in 2023. They said that "fiscal consolidation must be backed by efforts to continue mobilizing revenue , strengthen spending controls, and improve the targeting of subsidies and social assistance in a timely manner,” they said.
Regarding the reserves, the program establishes that there should be an
accumulated amount of US$5,000 million by the end of 2022 and this year it should close with 9,800 million in the coffers.
Although it is estimated that the numbers for December will close well, the reserve goals for this year appear more complicated, due to the drought that would complicate the income from the harvest and also due to the debt rescue program announced by Minister Massa, which has on alert to the Fund.
The deputy director for the department of the western hemisphere, Nigel Chalk warned as much in a report to Reuters when he said that he hoped that this decision would not jeopardize the accumulation of reserves.
Chalk said the IMF “has been working with the Argentine authorities on this plan with the debt buyback.
First about the scale of the operation, how it is being operated, and then about how it fits into the program.”
In addition, the official explained that the numbers for 2022 will now be reviewed. “But obviously, it has an element of vision for the future.
And we want
to have some peace of mind that the reserves goal will also be met,"
he emphasized.
