The trickle of reserves does not stop.
Despite an increasingly strict stocks, the pressure in the official market, to which fewer and fewer players can access, remains high and
the Central Bank has already sold US$ 366 million since the beginning of February
, to meet the demand for this segment.
So far in 2023, it has already dumped $559 million, in the worst start in the last five years.
For twelve rounds in a row, the Central has ended in red for its intervention in the "single and free" exchange market (MULC).
This Thursday, he sold US$ 59 million
, in a bleeding that has accelerated in recent weeks.
In the market, they look closely at the dynamics in this market and take it for granted that the Government will have to come out soon with "containment measures" to avoid a greater loss.
The sales take place in a market with a relatively low volume of operations.
Although this Thursday it rebounded compared to what had been seen the day before, the volume in the cash market reached US$ 354 million.
A market operator assured: "The only supplier in that market is the Central Bank."
Andres Reschini, from F2 Soluciones Financieras, affirmed: "I think they are clear that the official RRII does not join and I estimate that by the beginning of March at the latest we have to have announcements of PIE-type incentive programs."
However, this context of drought may limit the impact of a differential exchange rate for agriculture in terms of higher settlements.
"This year is more
challenging
. Last year you had delays in sales but there was stock. This year the coarse harvest will be considerably less and we will see what happens with prices," added the specialist, who also acknowledged.
"In any case, the producer probably tries to take care of what he manages to harvest and even more so in a context of political uncertainty due to the elections."
The exchange rate tension is reflected not only in the dripping of the Central's coffers, but also in the acceleration of the rise in the official exchange rate and in a greater intervention in parallel markets.
In the stock market, the MEP dollar ended with a fall of 0.2% to $354.36 and the cash with settlement ended at $371.54, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous day.
Lucas Yatche, from Liebre Capital, stated: "In a context where the supply of currencies is very low, with a significant drought, and in a month where the demand for money falls seasonally, we not only see greater sales of dollars by the Central, but also a good acceleration of the
crawling peg (
daily rate of devaluation), to bring it to an effective annual rate of more than 100% when a couple of weeks ago it did not exceed 80% per year"
The Central Bank accelerates the daily rise of the dollar and places it above projected inflation at a time when all market players anticipate an overheating of prices in January and anticipate the data that INDEC will communicate next week It will be worse than expected by the Government.
All this occurs in the context of a discussion about the level of indebtedness of the Treasury and the Central Bank.
The economist Gustavo Ber affirmed: "
To the mountain of pesos
is added the bleeding of reserves, insufficient to meet all short-term objectives, a ¨combo¨ that is too dangerous and so there are growing concerns regarding eventual financial tensions in the face of a more expedited search for cover".
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