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Despite the gas pipeline, there will continue to be a lack of gas in the winter: the Government closed the purchase of 30 ships

2023-02-10T13:51:19.951Z


Enarsa anticipated the purchase and a saving of US$ 2 billion is estimated. It's because the LNG price dropped from what was budgeted. The state firm will spend less than half that in 2022 and 70% less than what was budgeted for 2023.


Enarsa, the state firm in charge of importing LNG,

advanced the purchase of 30 ships for the winter

.

You'll pay an average of $20.60 per million BTUs, the industry unit of measure.

Since this year's budget

indicated that around US$50/US$55 would be paid

for this unit, Enarsa estimates that there will be savings of billions of dollars.

Total, Vitol and BP were the winning traders.

Each one will bring 10 boats during the winter: one between May and June, another in July, and the rest in August-September.

Bids were up to $29 per million BTU.

The price of LNG fell due to

lower demand in Europe.

There they anticipated a tougher winter season than they had so far.

European countries still have their deposits at half, and they consider that it will reach them by the end of the year.

In general, a group of traders usually appear in these tenders.

In addition to those mentioned above, Union Fenosa, Trafigura, Gunvor, Enarsa did not specify who participated.

But market sources indicated that Total, Vitol and BP are the winners.

Argentina demands more than 150 million cubic meters of gas during the winter.

The country produces close to 100 million, but it lacks the rest in the months of lower temperatures.

Through the Vaca Muerta gas pipeline, local capacity will grow by some 11 million cubic meters.

which generates savings of US$ 900 million.

It is because the local gas is paid at a fifth (or less) than the international one.

Although the Vaca Muerta gas pipeline will generate lower fiscal costs, this winter it will still be necessary to resort to foreign LNG.

Only with the second stage of Vaca Muerta could the transport capacity be doubled and imports further reduced.

Just as the high international price of gas was a martyrdom for the Central Bank's dollar reserves during 2022, now Argentina

will save compared to last year.

The purchase of each LNG “charge” was budgeted at about US$55 per million BTU.

A ship would cost between US$100 million/US$110 million, and in this sense, the total expenditure would exceed US$3,000 million for this year.

But the advance of the purchase will imply paying prices of US$ 20-21 per million BTU.

In this case, each ship purchased will be in the order of between US$ 30 million and 40 million, depending on the size.

The savings would be at least between 1,800 million to US$ 2,000 million.

During 2022, Argentina

allocated US$2,700 to LNG imports

.

He paid an average of $29 per million BTUs, the industry unit of measure.

It was the highest price paid for that product.

In 2021, it had paid US$1.1 billion for that gas.

Although it is estimated that

imports will drop this year due to the construction of the gas pipeline linking Vaca Muerta with Buenos Aires,

the country will continue to need foreign gas to get through the winter.

Each LNG tanker, which is typically between $100 million and $110 million in the winter, could now be had for $40 million.

That would imply a lower expenditure of between US$60 million and US$70 million per "charge".

If that number is multiplied by 30 -the number of ships that Argentina will need-, a relief of around US$ 2,000 million is at stake.

Saving or loss?

Some traders submitted offers for US$29 per million BTU.

In this sense, if Enarsa buys at US$20, it is obtaining savings.

The true dimension of the savings will be given when winter arrives and the new LNG price is seen at that time.

It is estimated that China -which consumed 23% less during 2022 due to its problems with the Covid- and European countries will try to replenish stock, and that will push the price up.

If the price continues at current levels, Argentina will have guaranteed itself

almost all the foreign gas supply it needs for the winter.

The country will only have done a bad deal if LNG is below US$20.

All charges purchased will now go to

Escobar's regasification vessel.

Although the Vaca Muerta gas pipeline will cause less need for imports (it will be replaced by national gas), the Government will also enable the vessel in Bahía Blanca.

For there, another 8 positions will be sought.

In 2022, Argentina used a lot of imported diesel for power plants, so as not to spend so much on gas.

But, this year,

with gas at a better price, perhaps that fuel is not required.

Most generators prefer to use diesel in their plants, since it causes less wear on their equipment.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-02-10

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