This Tuesday, the INDEC will announce inflation for January, which according to the forecasts of private economists
would be around 6%.
Thus, the index climbs 0.9 basis points compared to the December figure, which had been 5.1%.
The end of the downward trend in meat is key to the rise in January.
During the last months of 2022, the effect of the drought caused the livestock supply to increase and the meat on the counters to drop, which allowed the price index to close November at 4.9%, the lowest level since February.
But in January meat increased close to 20%, while a good part of the rest of the foods also moved upwards, with increases of 5% for the LCG consultancy, which estimates inflation of 5.5% for the month.
Private surveys indicate that inflation for the first month of the year
will be between 5.5% and 6.5%.
For EcoGo it was 5.7%, while Fundación Libertad y Progreso measured 6.3% and C&T reached 6.4%, the same record as the IPC Ecolatina for Greater Buenos Aires.
Inflation for workers, measured by the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET) and the Center for Concertation and Development (CCD), stood at 5.5%.
The rise "was driven by seasonal products such as tourism, fruits and vegetables, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the 5.3 registered in December," they specified.
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA), projected
an increase in inflation of 5.6% monthly
and 97.6% year-on-year for January.
One of the measurements that aroused concern was that of the City of Buenos Aires, which reached 7.3% in January, and became the highest since July of last year.
In this way, it accumulated an advance of 99.4% in the last 12 months.
In January,
the City's basic foods shot up 7.75%,
after increases of 5.1% in December and 3.8% in November.
Until last October, the national CPI and that of the City of Buenos Aires moved in sync, with differences close to half a percentage point.
But since then they show more and more distance.
In November and December, inflation in Buenos Aires marked 5.8%, while the national one registered 4.9% and 5.1%, respectively.
How will prices continue?
For February the upward trend of food is maintained.
According to the consulting firm EcoGo, they increased 2.8% in the first week of this month, which constitutes "the largest weekly variation since last March."
According to the LCG survey, the Fair Prices program, with a monthly increase of 3.2%, did not stop the increases in January.
However, in February the rise in the price of food and beverages slowed down compared to the previous week, falling from 2.7% to 1.8% per week.
With this trend in January and February, the government is already beginning to admit that
the objective of bringing the index below 4% in April will be difficult to achieve.
With the monthly record around 6%, inflation for the year would remain around 100%.
AQ
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