How long can the exchange 'summer' last with the Qatar dollar at $400?

After a somewhat turbulent start to the year, Minister Sergio Massa would have fulfilled what he promised last December: to restore

.

Although the exchange rate gap remains close to 100%, both the blue dollar and the financial ones have risen

so far in February.

However, the

by the Central Bank, the political noise generated by the starting line of an

and the pressure of

, could put an end

to an

that took a long time to arrive.

The

ended Friday at

,

than at the end of January.

So far this year, the price of the ticket in the street

,

of this period.

Something similar occurs in the

: after a very tense start to the year, the government resorted to the

program , a tool that served to "stabilize" prices.

With quotes ending last week at

and

, both the

and the

are barely up this month.

However, in the City they warn that these prices, the result of

in the bond market, are "artificial" and that

The economist

affirmed: "Massa's economy became

, with the rebound in inflation, the BCRA selling reserves, bonds falling and with a global context that stopped helping. It is far from collapsing but, due to the dynamic that is seen, the parallel dollar

, "he said.

Marull added that the "convertibility" exchange rate places the price of the parallel

This historical mark is the one reached on Friday by the so-called

, the price for international tourism based on the price of the official dollar.

It is towards that price where, they warn in the City, the rest of the prices

of the US currency 

"The conjunction of a moderate

and the absence of a substantive

in the short and medium term is a substantial

for the Argentine macro," they warned in a report for their clients at the consulting firm

"It is striking that the CCL remains

from this unfavorable outlook, remaining around

the Qatari dollar. The currency gap is

, below the highs seen at the end of January, perhaps reflecting positive expectations for the expected government announcements," the Delphos report added.

Along the same lines,

, Invecq economist, pointed out: "If we analyze only the current stocks, today the stock dollar (also applies to the CCL) should be

than the $355-$370 at which They are moving on the last wheels. Even if we look at the entire evolution of the dollar at today's prices since the stocks were put in place in 2019, 60% of the time the dollar was at higher values ​​(at today's prices).

According to Albornoz, the parallel prices of the dollar remain relatively calm because the Treasury and the Central are paying very high rates (118% TEA placed in the first bidding in February).

"In addition, the banks, by being able to operate a borrowing bond, put a floor on it (they took the lever from the dollar, so to speak) and, the crucial factor, the government's intervention of financial dollars with the repurchase of debt," he said. the economist, who indicated that he expects "an upward correction" in the short term.

However, for the economist

, from Cohen, a disruptive "shock" is not expected at least

in terms of dollar income for the Central Bank 

can be seen .

"There is still

for this exchange rate calm to spread. Agriculture has to liquidate a lot in the second quarter. We see a possible stress on reserves, in a context of high debt maturities in pesos. This may fuel the pressure on the gap "Polo said.