February
was not a good month
for financial assets.
In a context of high global volatility, the main Wall Street indices closed lower.
The market closely followed signs of
"rogue inflation" in the United States,
and fears of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (FED, the central bank) plagued the markets.
In this context,
Argentine stocks and bonds ended negative,
after having rehearsed a rally last month.
The fall in bonds
had an impact on country risk
, which ended this month at 1,958 points, which implies
a rise of almost 8% compared to last month.
"The market changed its expectations in recent weeks. It assigns an 80% probability to a new increase in the reference interest rate by the FED of 25 basis points and a 20% probability of a 50 point increase In previous weeks, the market assigned only a 6% probability that the reference rate would increase by 50 basis points, while at the beginning of the month the probability was almost nil," said Nicolás Max, from Criteria.
What happened in Argentina was not only a reaction to political uncertainty: corporate shares and debt securities
fell in all emerging countries.
However,
the punishment for Argentine assets was worse:
while on average emerging debt fell 3.8%, dollarized bonds ended the month with
reds of more than 8%.
The dollar debt repurchase announced by the government in mid-January did not have the expected effect.
The
Global 2030,
the most traded bond within this program, ended the month with
a drop of 8.61%
.
The reds stopped short of erasing the improvements the bonds are showing this year, though prices are rising from the ground up.
In the stock market.
the Merval reflected the global pessimism and ended with a fall of more than 2% if it is measured in dollars at the cash price with liquidation.
"The local market, with regard to equities, showed greater volatility throughout the month. The assets that make up the leading panel ended the last round with prices stained red, although a correction was to be expected of the shares due to the great increase they had in recent times", said Priscila Bruno, from Rava.
The
winning company
of the month, which managed to close positively on Wall Street and in Buenos Aires,
was Cresud
, which ended with
a 12% rise
in dollars in New York and the same amount in pesos in the local market.
Financial assets that rose the most:
Rigolleau 14.6%
Agro Mills 13.3%
Silver Commercial 13.1%
Pro 13 12.4%
cresud 11.6%
Pair $10.4%
TX28 10.1%
BBVA Bank 9.9%
Quasi-par 9.8%
TX26 9.5%
Those who lowered the most
Endesa Costanera -27.3%
GDP Coupon $ -19.6%
Cablevision -16.3%
Consultation -16.2%
Grupo Clarín -14.4%
Telecom -13.6%
Cellulose -13.1%
Ledesma -12.8%
Ternium Argentina -12.0%
AL29 -11.7%
Dollar, fixed term, soybeans, oil and gold
Fixed Term 30 days 6.0%
BADLAR 5.9%
Wholesale dollar 5.4%
Euro 1.9%
Merval -2.4%
Oil (WTI) -2.5%
S&P 500 -2.6%
Soy -3.2%
Gold (Troy Ounce) -5.2%
NE
look also
Private measurements agree that inflation travels at a rate close to 6% per month
The Central Bank had to sell US$ 889 million to contain the dollar: it closed the worst February in two decades
