Inflation for the first quarter of the year is on track to be around 20%, which would make it the highest quarter since 1991. This indicates that prices continue to accelerate: private forecasts for
the year are already reaching 118%
The official projection of bringing inflation to 60% this year is becoming increasingly blurred.
Up to
now, the only official data for 2023 is 6% for January.
The February one will be released on March 14, but the consultants anticipate that
it will be around 6% again
and something similar would happen in March.
“Our survey of retail prices for the GBA region presented
a monthly increase of 6.2% in February
, just below the 6.4% that we had surveyed in January and well above the 4.1% of February 2022”, says the consultancy C&T in its latest report.
For C&T, with the February data, inflation for the last twelve months rose to 105%.
"If the INDEC CPI were to show 6.2%, official inflation would be around 101.7% nationwide,
reaching triple digits for the first time since October 1991.
"
"Closing the second month of the year, the inflation expectation for February is around 6% per month (which would imply more than 100% year-on-year inflation) and
between 6 and 6.5% for March
," adds Aurum Valores.
"The record for February is already in play and we expect it to end at around 6% per month, consolidating an inflation floor similar to that of January, and exceeding the ceiling of 100% for the first time (101.1% yoy)," anticipates the Capital Foundation.
The monthly 6% in January "broke with
the fragile deceleration exhibited in the last two months of last year
."
The Capital Foundation adds that "March could mark an even higher record,
around 6.5% per month,
in line with typical increases for the month associated with the beginning of the school year and the fall/winter season in clothing and footwear."
To this is added that two thirds of households will receive an update in the gas rate, of between 40% and 50% depending on family income (except for beneficiaries of the social rate who will not have increases), "which would add half a point to
the inflation record for the month".
In addition, large commercial and industrial users will have increases of around 70%, which, although they will not directly impact the CPI, will do so indirectly through higher costs that will be transferred to final prices.
In turn, starting this month, the monthly update of the bus and train fare in the AMBA will be in force, which will be indexed to the result of the IPC-GBA with a two-month delay.
In other words, the bus fare will rise by 6% in March (IPC-GBA for January),
contributing an additional 0.17 points.
In this way,
"the first quarter of the year would close with inflation around 19.7 points
, the highest inflation since 1991, and entering a second quarter where the risks regarding price dynamics deepen," indicates the Capital Foundation.
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank showed that for February the ten consultancies that add the most correct answers forecast a CPI of 6.2% and take it to 6.3% for March.
For these analysts
, the year will close with inflation of 102.9%,
a jump of 7.6 points compared to the forecasts made in January by these same economists.
without anchors
Thus, inflation for 2023 is set to be one step higher than last year
, forecasting that it will be around 118%, says Fundación Capital.
In this way, "
the price anchors used in other years (exchange rate and tariffs) are difficult in the current context, with wide differences in relative prices already accumulated
".
From EcoGo they foresee a price increase
of 105% until November.
Due to the impact that the presidential elections could have, they are not estimating what the December number would be.
Going forward, Fundación Capital sees more elements that will put pressure on prices.
"Economic policy will continue to point to a higher nominal value, with a greater monetary issue to assist the treasury, a rising exchange rate gap, greater restrictions on imports, exchange rate tensions that cannot be ruled out in an election year and parities that will continue to boost expectations of inflation".
In this context,
"the reissue of Precios Justos looks like a drop in the ocean
. "
In addition, the price anchors used in other years "are difficult in the current framework, with wide differences in relative prices already accumulated."
In the midst of the escalation, the Government is unable to find solutions to the issue, beyond the extension of price agreements to more and more sectors and for shorter terms, which for analysts have a very limited
impact
.
A few days ago, President Alberto Fernández said in an interview that
"inflation in February was due to vacations
. "
And he anticipated that "inflation in March will also be high due to the start of classes," although he risked that it would loosen in April.
Private screenings design a more complicated scenario.
For the consultancy firm FMyA, the CPI for April will continue to be around 6%.
While the top of the 10 best forecasters surveyed by the Central Bank places it at 5.9%.
There are no monthly estimates among these consultants for 2023 below 5%.
AQ
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