The figures are updated day by day and this new heat wave only worsens
the forecasts
.
In this edition of Expoagro, which opens its doors this Tuesday in San Nicolás, there is already talk that the drought will deny the
Argentine economy no less than 20,000 million dollars
.
In other words, close to 2 points of GDP.
Dramatic.
And the question everyone is asking is
what will happen to the payment chain.
How the debts contracted at the beginning of the campaign, which turned out worse than the most pessimistic forecasts, will
be settled .
"There are producers who
cannot comply with the grains promised to pay for the inputs that we sold them at the start of the campaign,"
Carlos Achettoni
, from
Coninagro
, told
Clarín .
In the countryside, the raw material that producers extract from the land is a
payment currency, perhaps more valuable than pesos.
That is why there are many debts incurred in wheat, soybeans or corn that cannot be fully paid precisely because crop yields have collapsed.
"Half of the debt is with input suppliers, ranging from seeds to fertilizers and everything you can think of," says the Sales Manager of a multinational.
"We have to sit down and
see how the situation is regularized
. Nobody has the intention of taking a producer off the field, what they want is to help," he adds.
The Secretary of Agriculture, Juan José Bahillo, on Monday at the opening of Expoagro.
In this the banks already play a key role.
Juan Cuattromo
, head of
BaPro
, commented that it is systematized to manage online a special line for producers with land in areas officially declared in emergency.
Banco
Nación
is preparing something similar.
Daniel Funes de Rioja, head of the UIA,
was at the opening dinner that was held on Monday night at the Hotel Colonial de San Nicolás.
He admitted to this newspaper that the situation is very difficult, but he trusts, paradoxically, that the amount of pesos in the economy will cushion the impact.
He says that the fact that
the debt swap in pesos clarifies the outlook for the banks,
fundamental players when it comes to alleviating pressure on producers, can also help.
"Let's hope that the exchange serves to reassure. The economists who speak with the UIA say that the end of the mandate can be reached with the debt in pesos ordered and
with just enough dollars
. "
Likewise, the drop in the amount of grains to be collected, transported and processed is an undeniable problem.
There are
fewer hired trucks, fewer covers to change
, fewer plates of food that are sold in highway soup kitchens, less labor, fewer liters of diesel, less everything.
That does not mean that Expoagro does not maintain that condition of
unique showcase
in which the ecosystem commonly known as "the field" shows how year after year it moves its frontier of productivity and efficiency, making it clear why today it continues to be one of the
main engines of the
Argentine economy.
The headwind that this drought means is another opportunity for him to show that the start is going forward, once again.
Saint Nicholas (special envoy)
look too
In the midst of the heavy losses due to the drought, the Central Bank had to sell US$ 42 million
Climate disaster: Argentina will lose 20,000 million dollars
After wreaking havoc in the productive region, La Niña retreats