The debt swap in pesos launched by the government on Tuesday continues to raise a stir among economists of different political beliefs.
The discussion moved yesterday to Expoagro, where the financial firm Allaria organized a panel led by Marina Dal Pogetto, Emmanuel Alvarez Agis and Hernán Lacunza.
It was a racy discussion, which held the attention of about 300 people who packed into a tent (some sitting on the ground) with little air conditioning.
"Offering a dual bond that gives the creditor the option to choose between devaluation and inflation, whichever suits them best, is
expensive
. If we give them the option to sell the bond at any time, it is directly a user operation" Lacunza said.
It was a response from a "ministerial" to Alvarez Agis, who recalled his proposal to make a "Moncloa Pact" that the Government and the opposition should sign at least regarding debt management.
"As long as the government is there, it says what effort it is willing to make."
Agis acknowledged that this is not easy to achieve because on both sides there are doves and hawks "and as far as I know, coexistence between a hawk and a dove is never good."
Dal Poggetto intervened with a dose of common sense: "You don't need a Moncloa. When it comes to debt, contracts must be respected and above all, don't go around saying through the media that it won't be paid."
The Eco Go economist summarized: "It is not a problem of credit but of solvency."
Dal Poggetto added that "All the debt in pesos is going to end up being indexed. The Government achieved longer terms but it was expensive, because it will pay 8 points above the CER. And as for the put (the BCRA will buy all the bonds that are sold before expiration) said that it is not something new. It was done last June to avoid a strong inflationary jump."
Finally, he predicted that this government will avoid exchange rate corrections and will leave it to the next.
And the trap?
For Lacunza it will not be the first measure taken by the next president.
Not before a year if things are done right.
Lacunza had no qualms about notifying rural producers that they did not have to wait for a drop in withholdings in the first days of an eventual government together for the change.
"I cannot tell you that we are going to lower taxes: the first thing is to achieve fiscal balance and stabilization of the economy. To lower taxes, you must first lower spending."
For his part, Agis pointed out that the problem he is observing is that the economic policy tools are ideologized: "Guzmán had to leave because he wanted to make an adjustment and Massa makes the adjustment but badly. We cannot criticize whoever comes for the ideology".
And he closed: "In the country that comes, everyone puts, for six years. The current level of seriousness is so great that the next government can be made to fail in 40 minutes if it does not act responsibly."
Dal Pogetto concluded that "There is a margin so that everything does not blow up but the rope is reaching the neck. How do you define 2024? Cooperation or non-cooperation. With the exchange we saw some cooperation, although at a high price. Will it continue cooperation? We'll see. The lack of dollars is what complicates the year. That's why it's vital to increase the horizon and governability. Otherwise, not even Mandrake can fix it."