Despite the fact that the Palacio de Hacienda boasted of
having converted the wall of debt maturities in pesos into a valley
, for private analysts, the result of the swap was
"very poor"
and far from what was expected.
With the exchange that opened on Thursday, the Government managed to kick for 2024 and 2025 short-term maturities for
$4.3 trillion
.
The reading made by the Ministry of Economy was that acceptance was 64%, while market expectations marked a floor of 70%.
But strictly speaking, to reach that percentage, Sergio Massa's team included debt that had already been exchanged last January.
Thus, when
doing the fine numbers, the actual acceptance was 57%.
"The data on the debt swap reported by the Ministry of Economy was misleading at best. The debt swap was not 64% but 57%. The cost was very high, with very positive real rates.
And
the Private adherence level was low, approximately 23%. Very poor," said Aurum Valores.
For Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI), "at first glance
the result is not very encouraging
, especially given the estimates that pointed to a private sector holding that in some cases reached almost half of the stock."
For Adcap Grupo Financiero, the exchange
"implied an acceptance of only 17% of private holders
. There are still 3.2 trillion pesos in circulation with maturity until June 2023. Acceptance was especially low in bonds maturing in March, with only 20%".
Analysts point out that private investors let the swap pass because
they prefer to stay in short-term bonds in the face of uncertainty
.
And this is happening despite the fact that the government introduced various stimuli to seduce the banks, such as the PUT that guarantees them that the Central Bank will buy those securities at the time they want to leave and while at the same time promising to pay them the most profitable option. between the evolution of inflation and the official dollar.
Consulting firm Equilibra estimates that 21% of the titles to be exchanged were in the hands of private banks, while another 24% were held by public banks and 25% corresponded to the public sector.
"The remaining 30% was held by non-bank agents from the private sector, with the most difficult portion to renew."
And they calculate that Finance validated
a rate slightly above 10%,
in line with the market.
Fernando Marull notes that the swap "
was worse than initially imagined, with the banks hardly even participating
. "
He details that the new bonds for 2024/2025 came out at CER + 11%, almost what the market yielded.
"Specifically, the private sector, which are the important maturities, almost did not go to the exchange and the Ministry of Economy will continue to make tenders, because almost an
average of $1 trillion continues to expire until June
."
Despite official optimism, the issue of the debt in pesos has not been resolved.
From Cohen they point out that these maturities remain ahead at technical values for the next four months: $533,000 million in March, $1,018,000 million in April, $797,000 million in May and $793,000 million in June.
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