The day after pointing out that the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is detrimental to Argentina and pointing out that this context preferred to "default", the economist and former civil servant K Emmanuel Álvarez Agis predicted that the purchasing power of
wages it will continue to fall
and that the crisis may be even worse than the current one.
"
If someone promises that in 2023 or 2024 the purchasing power of the worker will improve in everything, they are lying
. Argentina is complicated because the amount of resources it generates is not enough for the amount of resources we consume," Álvarez Agis analyzed.
In an interview with
Radio con Vos
, the former vice minister of the economic portfolio during the last presidency of Cristina Kirchner, insisted on the importance of "
renegotiating the agreement with the Fund so as not to worsen the situation
" because the country is facing a drought that it will make him lose "between 15 and 20 billion dollars."
The economist argued over and over again about the importance of taking measures to stop the escalation of inflation, knowing that the initial impact of those decisions will make things even worse.
"Those who think that with Vaca Muerta we can fix the macroeconomic problem don't realize that
Argentina can be Norway, but it can also be Angola,"
he said.
He also argued that for him "you have to
shock inflation quickly, taking great care that this program recovers the purchasing power of the salary
and you have to be realistic to communicate to people where you invite them."
For the economist "a reasonable alternative is a program that has orthodox components: while you lower the deficit and the emission, you have to
pull up wages, rates
, and set up a program to narrow the gap and the prices in dollars of things that we Argentines buy fall and we cannot believe what they are coming out".
He specifically referred to the price of clothing, footwear, electronics and others, which, according to him, "is the most expensive in the region."
When referring to inflation, Álvarez Agis insisted on the idea that the country's situation "before it gets better, it gets worse" and "that is the reality of a chronic inflation process."
"This is not a hyper, it is a chronic inflation, you need to make corrections first and
those corrections in the first year tend to accelerate inflation
and I am concerned that the candidates do not say so," he emphasized.
The agreement with the IMF
Repeating the arguments for which, according to him, Argentina is harmed by the new agreement with the IMF, he warned that "complying with it is going to be very tortuous" for the population.
"Massa, what did you just do, renegotiate, well, but from my point of view, you have to renegotiate differently," he said.
And he continued: "Massa renegotiated, but you shouldn't renegotiate like that."
In addition, regarding the position of the IMF, he launched: "This year the Fund plans to charge us 3,000 million, the disbursements are smaller than the payments. My position is that we are going to lose between 15 and 20 billion in exports, the Central Bank has 3,000 million reserves (...) Argentina's position should be to give me money because there was a drought."
And he added: "In 2018 the harvest fell 25% and they disbursed us 47,000 million, now it falls 40% and they want to charge us 3,000 million, I give that discussion. And if when I give it I do not find a foothold, perhaps it is better to default."
DB
look too
Domingo Cavallo: "The Government is in a blind alley with inflation"
Red traffic light: they warn that 80% of agricultural production is in crisis