The latest inflation data led consultants to recalculate upward projections for the entire year.
Now,
the estimates for annual inflation already touch 120%.
A report from Fundación Capital details that the baseline scenario they use includes inflation of 120% with a drop in GDP of 2.7%.
And they define 2023 as
"a year without growth engines."
This projection indicates that "the retraction of aggregate demand would reach 4.3% year-on-year, discounting the impact of imports."
In detail, they maintain that
the decline in agricultural activity due to the drought will subtract at least two points from GDP in the year.
In addition, with restrictions on imports increasing and lower domestic demand, the industry will have a drop of 0.7%, which in turn will subtract 0.15 points from the product.
But at the same time, the Capital Foundation handles two more complicated scenarios, both with a 30% probability of occurrence.
In the "Plan to endure inflating - recharged", the exchange rate gap - today below 100% - "is tightening towards the middle of the year, within the framework of expirations in bulky pesos and with risky assistance from the BCRA to the Treasury".
In this alternative,
inflation would exceed 140%
and the official exchange rate would reach $390, with a drop in GDP greater than 3.5%.
Finally, "in the third scenario, the dynamics would be more critical, as a result of a discrete jump in the official exchange rate that cannot be avoided given the weakness of the cash box in dollars and where an iterative process of devaluation-inflation would take place, with greater
recession economical and an even higher nominality
".
More inflation for the end of the year
Also JP Morgan, the world's largest bank,
estimates inflation at 115% for this election year.
"Our baseline scenario assumes monthly headline inflation of an average monthly inflation of 6.2% between March and June, which would
accelerate to 7.0% in the second semester
," the bank's analysts detailed, specifying that "the route is consistent with inflation as of December 2023 of 115%".
In addition, the study indicates that
economic activity will fall 1.7% in the year and up to 2% in 2024,
"causing the country to suffer again from two consecutive years of recession and up to 13 years of stagflation."
The Latin Focus Forecast averages inflation of 98.7% for this year.
But several of the most recognized consultancies already see it closer to 120%.
That list includes EcoGo (118.6%), Invecq Consulting (118%), EMFI (117.5%), Banco de Galicia (115.4%) and Barclays Capital (115%).
For Eduardo Frachhia, from the IAE Business School, inflation continues to rise and "
it can climb to 120% during 2023, although the scenario of repeating 100% is not impossible
."
Even the consultants that still maintain the annual projection closer to 100% than 120% already warn that the chances of the consumer price index falling more than one notch in the remainder of this year are practically unfeasible.
"From now on, it will be difficult to find numbers below 6%,"
said Federico Moll, director of consultancy Ecolatina Analytics.
The economist made a gloomy forecast for the CPI, which is already discounted to be 7% in March, and will not improve in the coming months.
AQ
look too
Activity slows down: the consumption indicator fell 1.7% in February
Due to the fall in reserves, the rumor of an exchange rate unfolding grows, although the Economy denies it
