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The Central sold US$ 588 million this week and the market does not rule out new measures


It accumulates sales for US$ 1,459 million this month. The market estimates that net reserves are around US$ 1,500 million. The news of the exchange served to make financial dollars fall, but it would not reverse the dynamics

The Central Bank failed to stop the drain on its reserves: the entity sold US$88 million on the market on Thursday.

Thus, in an exceptionally short week, due to the holiday this Friday, the agency got rid of US$588 million

and raised the annual redemption to US$2,500 million.

The bleeding, which began in the second half of January, worsened in March, in a month where the impact of the drought on agricultural income was felt strongly.

So far this month, the agency has already sold US$ 1,459 million

in a combo in which few imports, energy demand and purchases from provinces and companies were added to meet financial commitments.

The fragility of the situation is high: in the consultancy 1816 they estimated that in Central

I the net reserves would not exceed US$ 1,500 million


And, although this week the Government has come out with announcements of international disbursements, has postponed the payment to the Monetary Fund for next week and has executed a "compulsory" debt swap for the public sector, the market believes that additional measures will be needed to contain the red.

It was a busy week for the economic team: seven days ago the Central Bank had to go out to validate an interest rate rise, on Monday the Ministry of Economy was forced to deny rumors of exchange rate unfolding and on Tuesday it came out with an


of public debt.

which clearly seems to be aimed at obtaining financing in pesos and, at the same time, monitoring the gap.

The exchange, which, although it has already been implemented in the Official Gazette, is still awaiting new regulations in order to be operational, did have an effect on the price of the bonds.

The titles in dollars fell more than 1% and the country risk was on the edge of 2,500 points

, in a mark that it had not seen since the beginning of last November.

The news also served to "deflate" in part the financial prices:

cash with liquidity, which had reached over $400 at the beginning of the week, fell back and this Thursday ended at $389


while the MEP dollar ended just above $379.

They also managed to contain the blue, which this week reached its nominal all-time high of $394, and this Thursday closed at $389.

A parallel dollar bordering on $400 worried the Government, although in the market they warn that if inflation is taken into account, the price of the ticket should be closer to $600 to reach a "crisis" value.

In the City they analyze the impact of the measures taken this week and look at them with suspicion.

The economist Fernando Marull, from FyM Asociados stated: "

Today the BCRA has few alternatives to sustain this dynamic if it does not make decisions."

For Marull, without additional measures, the inertia of the reserves, with US$23,000 less in agricultural liquidations due to the impact of the drought, the Central Bank would lose US$9,500 million this year and the reserves would arrive in the red at the end of 2023. The body could try to stop the bleeding with something that has already been seen in this administration: "lower payments for energy, savings in tourism, stocks and greater importer debt."

But in the market they expect the government to try to reverse the balance on the supply side of dollars.

This is where the ideas of differential exchange rates for new sectors appears as a short-term exit. 

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Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-03-23

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