The revival of the soybean dollar
will have to wait until after Easter
.
The Government will launch it only at the end of next week for a
period of 45 days until the end of May.
In this way, the new exchange regime with a value that could be
close to $300
will be valid longer than the two previous versions, in a new attempt to add foreign currency in the face of the accelerated drain of reserves and the impact of the drought.
Sergio Massa
will announce the measure this Wednesday in the run-up to the long weekend
.
The Economy Minister returned from Washington on Saturday, where he managed to make the reserve accumulation goals more flexible and obtained the IMF's endorsement to reissue a dollar for the countryside to avoid a sudden devaluation or an exchange rate unfolding.
There, he anticipated a soybean dollar for 30 days from this Monday and another for the regional economies for 90 days.
The tugs with the exporters, however, forced some changes in the last few hours.
In official dispatches they know that planting was delayed and that the first batches show worse than expected yields.
For this reason, the latest projections cut the soybean harvest for the current campaign to 20 million tons.
This situation led the authorities to delay the start of the measure and grant a longer term than initially planned.
The other front that threatens the government is the
drop in revenue and the collapse of the supply of agricultural dollars
while waiting for a new incentive.
According to the Chamber of the Oil Industry (CIARA), US$ 1,228.6 million were liquidated last month,
the second lowest March since 2020
.
In this context, the Central Bank parted with US$259 million this Wednesday and more than US$3.2 billion in the year.
Massa aspires to plug that hole with the
export of US$ 15,000 million between April and September,
while the industry expects a less auspicious result.
However, the level of the new soybean dollar still remains to be defined.
The idea is a value between 30 and 35% higher than the official dollar of Banco Nación to offset the withholdings of 33%, which supposes an exchange rate of between $281 and 292, but the farm asks for a price above $ 300.
The minister is in a hurry to reach an agreement.
Since Thursday of last week,
the grain market in Rosario has been paralyzed with the expectation that a higher exchange rate will start.
The government reported that negotiations continued today and the grain companies maintain that Massa will make decisions "unilaterally."
The tensions are against the background of the harshest drought in the last 60 years.
In the industry, they project
losses of US$ 20,000 million and are already preparing to import between 8 and 10 million tons of soybeans from Brazil.
There are also jerks with the regional economies, for which a lower exchange rate is expected than that of soybeans.
The Government points to those sectors whose products are mostly destined for export and do not affect the basic basket, such as peanuts and wine.
For analysts, the soybean dollar -the most relevant- will contribute between
US$3,000 and US$5,000 million,
a temporary relief that would be accompanied by greater restrictions on imports to retain foreign currency.
It is that the Central Bank will buy dollars from agriculture at a value greater than $280 and will sell them to importers for $208. In the US, Massa has already announced changes to unify the tourist dollar with the service dollar and some imports.