The Government will launch today its plan to
alleviate the reserves with the debut of the "agricultural dollar"
and a sanctions scheme aimed at accelerating the liquidation of foreign currency.
These are some of the measures with which Sergio Massa seeks to recover part of the
US$ 5.8 billion in net reserves
that the Central Bank has lost so far this year and that complicate compliance with the IMF program, despite the recent easing of the goals.
The minister reached an agreement with the cereal companies last week after strong tussles.
In the background, he remains firm in his decision to avoid a sharp devaluation in an election year.
The cost was that in the first three months the BCRA sold a little more than
US$3.4 billion in the exchange market
, one of the highest levels in years of the exchange rate.
The rest evaporated with debt payments to the IMF and private bondholders, in addition to the repurchase of bonds.
In this challenging scenario, the package that will come into effect today contemplates a first DNU with a
third round of soybean dollars for 45 days and a dollar for regional economies for five months
, in both cases with an exchange rate of $300. It is a price 42% above the current official dollar and an improvement in real terms compared to the value of the incentive in September and December, according to EcoGo calculations.
In this way, the Government expects to liquidate some US$ 15,000 million between April and September, a calculation that could suggest the launch of a fourth version of the incentive to exporters and that is above what was foreseen by the private ones.
Equilibra
estimates a settlement of US$8.9 billion in the next five months
and EcoGo, a total of US$9.2 billion in the first quarter, including the outstanding balance due to delays in marketing.
To access the benefit, exporters must meet several requirements, including
having exported in the last 180 days
.
Regional economies must participate in the official price program, maintain employment and guarantee volume and supply in said program.
And for soybeans, the Central Bank
will maintain the restrictions that make access to credit more expensive because it retains a stock of grains greater than 5% and prohibits the purchase of financial dollars.
Grain companies are waiting to learn the fine print on how withholdings will be recorded and paid.
For now, the measure
will increase the cost of animal feed and field rentals
.
A second decree, on the other hand, will suspend the CUIT and the access to the official exchange market (MULC) to companies and directors that do
not settle their currencies in the established time
, with the objective that they enter US$ 3,700 million (0. 6% of GDP).
The initiative will be closely monitored from Washington, where Massa will travel on Thursday to participate in the Spring Assembly of the IMF and the World Bank, and continue negotiating the "bridge" that Alberto Fernández spoke 10 days ago with Joe Biden at the White House.
After that talk, the IMF relaxed and reduced the reserve target by US$2 billion.
Now, they are seeking
$3 billion from multilateral organizations and trade agreements.
In its latest staff report, the Fund estimated the impact of the drought at US$ 5,000 million -a figure lower than what was expected by the private sector- and warned of the greater risks of the program due to the acceleration of inflation, the lower
global
growth and the higher expense represented by the pension moratorium.
Despite the change in reserve targets, analysts estimate that the government will have difficulty reaching them.
The Central Bank must accumulate US$4,177 million in March, US$9,077 million in June, US$9,477 million in September and US$10,277 million in December.
The Fund estimated net reserves at US$3.2 billion on March 23, and the BCRA then sold US$500 million on the market.
For this reason, the economist Fernando Marull estimates that in March they were closer to US$2.7 billion.
This means that a "waiver
" (exception) should be requested
in the July review, but Massa seeks to avoid it with his trip to the US.
