With
the blue dollar above $440
and the financial exchange rates that set new nominal records on Friday, the market will resume trading on Monday amid a
climate of tension
.
During the weekend, the Government worked against the clock to "put cold cloths" after a week full of financial rumors and political noise.
The weakness of the soybean dollar, added to the inflationary acceleration and the crisis within the ruling coalition had a strong impact on the "free" prices in the last five rounds.
The
Government puts pressure on cereal companies to speed up the settlement of foreign currency
, but given the high level of uncertainty,
exporters maintain that they cannot find soybeans to buy and therefore settle foreign currency.
A high-ranking source in the sector told
Clarín
that
the market is paralyzed "because of the enormous exchange rate gap" and it is the same producers who, faced with growing mistrust, decide not to sell their grains.
" US$1,250 million
of the pre-financings have already entered
. There is no way to continue entering because foreign banks do not lend until there are no purchases," he said.
While the liquidations of the "soybean dollar" are lower than expected, those from the "agricultural dollar", that is, from the export of different products from the regional economies, have also
entered into limbo
.
"They demand that the companies enter at Fair Prices and only 20 of them have entered so far
," said sources in the sector.
However, in the Government they were optimistic and affirmed that they hope that this week the rate of liquidation will resume.
They pointed out that since Friday, once the political noise and the news of Alberto Fernández's "resignation" of his intention to go for a renewal of his mandate had subsided, the Central was able to buy US$ 289 million
and
that the third round of the soybean dollar has already accumulated some US$ 1,285 million.
Something that can help the Central to recover its buying position is if, as happened on Friday,
access to the exchange market by banks remains paralyzed.
In the last conference last week, the decision of the BCRA impacted, embodied in communication A7746 on Thursday, which asks banks to indicate whether the suppliers of their importing clients are linked to that company or not.
The entities analyzed the regulations on Friday and in practice the market was paralyzed.
According to sources from the Central, on Friday 19 banks, "among them the most representative ones," updated their systems and that is why they will be able to start operating more quickly on Monday.
However, in a survey carried out by
Clarín
by different entities, the expectation is that until
Wednesday the market will not normalize its operations again.
Beyond the technical aspects, to stop the escalation of the parallel exchange rate, it is necessary to reverse the expectations of the market, investors and savers.
"We are in the middle of a run and
the runs are stopped with dollars and confidence.
I do not see that the government can quickly appeal to either of the two things," said an operator in strict off the record.
Analysts from the City agree that after the jump in the financial dollar, with cash in liquidity that exceeded $455 on Friday,
the "crisis prices" have not yet been reached
, which, for example, were seen after the resignation of the former Minister of Economy , Martín Guzmán in the last July.
But they warned that
the speed
of the climb in recent days is worrying.
"The exchange rate gap reached maximums since the inauguration of Minister Massa up to 108%, a value that still does not denote extreme financial stress. However, the strongly upward trend is worrying since if it continues we could reach levels above 130% as observed in October 2020 (post-quarantine crisis) and July 2022 (Martín Guzmán's resignation)," they said in Delphos.
"The rise was abrupt, but it is true that the parallel exchange rates were very delayed. Something similar happened last year in April, when after the dollar had moved calmly between February and March, prices skyrocketed" , affirmed Pablo Repetto, of Aurum Valores.
Repetto pointed out that this time, there are several seasonings that push the jump: "
the Government has ahead of a huge tender, of $900 billion for this Wednesday,
the political noise, the impact of the drought and the recalibration of goals with the Fund they make up a scenario of greater macro vulnerability and in view of this the dollar appears as a refuge asset. Savers and companies from all over the world make a "flight to quality" and in Argentina that means more demand for dollars".
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