When the dollar was close to $500, the economists Marina Dal Poggetto, Martín Redrado and Luciano Laspina had to stop on Tuesday in front of an auditorium at the Grain Exchange to talk about what was coming.
The initial kick was from
Dal Poggetto
, director of the EcoGo consultancy: “We need to normalize the economy.
The giant macroeconomic distortions
are already there
, all sectors are clamoring for measures in a zoo that does not work, ”she described.
The economist reviewed the different economic crises that have occurred in recent years and finally pointed out: "
Any program has to aim to disarm the exchange rate gap.
There are no miraculous solutions. It is not a matter of intervening only the monetary regime.
It is needed urgently a program of structural reforms
, ”he said.
The necessary stabilization, in which almost all economists agree, requires, according to Dal Poggetto,
a change in relative prices, tariffs and the dollar.
"It requires closing the fiscal accounts, liquefying the fiscal deficit, with which
the devaluation that is required is not small,"
he
clarified .
In another part of her talk, the economist estimated that
a 40% devaluation of the currency could imply inflation of 15% or 20% per month.
"Stabilization requires a monetary program. We were already wrong with Convertibility,
let's not make a mistake looking for magical solutions
," he insisted.
Also "stabilization is going to require, at the start, higher interest rates, an agreement with the IMF and an agreement on prices and wages. Now, the
transfer of income that it causes for a damaged society like ours is dangerous"
he warned
.
Marina Dal Poggetto.
Photo Lucia Merle
According to the economist, "
a devaluation that is not compensated at the outset runs serious risks of becoming a Rodrigazo," she warned.
This is how she referred to the stage, in the 70s, in which the dollar, tariffs, and fuel rose strongly (more than 100%).
"They assumed they were managing the wage bid. Lorenzo Miguel came doubled wages and we went from 3% monthly inflation to 6 or 7% in the months prior to June 1975, to inflation that did not drop below 130% per year following and that it only dropped to 87% per year in 1981 with an economic program (that of the military) that had everything: dollars, management of the distributive bid, liberation of the capital and financial account and opening of the economy", described the analyst.
After that remembrance, Dal Poggetto fired: "Enough of magical solutions. If the pendulum goes faster and faster, it can return to the other side," he said to finish.
The second presentation was given by
Luciano Laspina
, who remarked that the events of the last few days are part of a cycle that began 20 years ago and that is "coming to an end," he said,
alluding to Kirchnerism
and from his position as
advisor to Juntos for the change.
Luciano La- FTP CLARIN RMQ03547.JPG Z
"You have to find another way at the end of the year," he said in an electoral tone:
"Turn the model around, among other ways, by lowering withholdings
," he slipped.
We have to do the opposite of what has been done up to now;
unify the exchange rate,
achieve a balance in public accounts and the independence of the Central Bank.
Like his colleagues, he also alluded to
the "costs of dollarization"
that Javier Milei proposes and that he
does not recommend.
For his part, Martín Redrado agreed that
"we are at the end of the cycle.
That is why it is necessary to address a" comprehensive approach, which includes predictability in public spending, a reform of the State, and also combat informality.
According to his vision, the challenge is to
normalize relative prices
and have special laws that give the economy a horizon," he said.
Martin Redrado.
Photo Guillermo Rodríguez Adami
Among other points, according to the Secretary of Strategic Affairs of the City of Buenos Aires and former president of the Central Bank of Cristina Kirchner, "we must work on international geopolitical negotiations, go towards agreements on tariff positions," he explained.
Before an audience from the agro-industrial sector, the topic of withholdings from the countryside was on the lips of all the economists and lecturers at the seminar.
In this regard, Darío Epstein pointed out: "I would ask the political candidates who want to lift the withholdings, how are they going to do it? They must say
what spending they are going to cut
because Argentina has no sources of financing and continues with a deficit of US $30 billion voted in the Budget.
"There are plans, but
there is a lack of consensus
. They will not be able to lower withholdings if they do not lower public spending. It is not easy with 40% poverty. That is what the next Minister of Economy will face," he stressed.
Regarding the risk of an inflationary escalation from a devaluation, the expert agreed: "If it is devalued now, it must be done very carefully
so
as not to enter into hyperinflation," he warned.
NE
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