The exchange tensions of the last two weeks forced
emergency measures to contain the dollar
.
The rise in rates and the intervention of the Central Bank partially pushed back the prices from their highs (this Monday, the blue rose to $ 474).
But
the surge was not free
and was reflected in the
daily drop in dollar deposits
from the private sector, a phenomenon that began to appear at the end of February and has now calmed down.
The latest data from the Central Bank show a stock of US$ 15,505 million as of April 25,
some US$ 400 million less
than on Friday the 14th of that month - the day inflation of 7.7% was announced and the bullfight broke out. currency- and
some US$ 800 million less since the beginning of the year
, 5% of the total stock in that currency.
In the middle,
the blue dollar came close to $500
last week, which
accentuated the demand for banknotes to the Central Bank by financial institutions.
"For now it is that, a daily trickle, logical in pre-electoral times and of exchange tension. But
we do not see it as something worrying
yet, the liquidity in dollars of the banks continues to be high and
the withdrawal of these deposits does not affect the reserves net,
which are the ones we look at because they are not included in the calculation, since they are not freely available from the Central Bank", they pointed out in a national bank.
In the financial sector they believe that
last week's measures calmed the waters
.
In a swerve ordered by Sergio Massa, the Central accelerated the rise of the official dollar and
on Thursday raised the rates
of retail fixed terms
to 91%
(141% in effective annual terms).
It also
used reserves to appease financial dollars
and this Monday the purchase of cash with liquidity (CCL) with credit (guarantee or passes) was suspended.
"
Last week we had a little more than normal in deposit withdrawals
, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, the rise in rates may only show us this week an overview of how everything will continue, this Tuesday at least was a quiet day of operations ", they pointed out in a foreign bank.
"After many days,
the drainage decreased:
we are going to continue monitoring that variable," they assured another private entity.
One of the factors that would have affected the expectations of savers is the difficulties in accumulating foreign currency.
Without the full impact of the drought,
net reserves fell by US$5.6 billion this year
through early April, and
were just around US$50 million as of Friday, the lowest level since early September
, when the government launched the first soybean dollar. , according to Ecolatina.
And on Tuesday, for the fourth consecutive round, he sold foreign currency in the market (US$133 million).
In the management of another foreign capital bank they believe that there was "scare, political noise,
many people talking about net reserves."
"Interestingly, it did not pick up towards the close of last week and is calmer," they added.
Indeed, the stock of "argendólares" continues at levels similar to those prior to the resignation of Martín Guzmán from the Ministry of Economy, last July.
Due to that crisis,
there were withdrawals for US$ 1,000 million, which were later reversed.
"
People are scared because they hear that the Central Bank is with minimum reserves
and ghosts of what happened after Convertibility are fanned, but the current situation is very different from that of then," said Matías de Luca, LCG economist.
However, he did not rule out that the rise in the dollar may have given rise to
some "curl"
(sell in the blue and buy MEP) that has stimulated the outflow of dollar deposits.
The uncertainties about the electoral scenario and the uncertainty about a
possible dollarization also add tension
.
"Of course, structurally there is a low supply of dollars due to the drought and an imbalance in the relative prices of the exchange market, but
until the political noise clears up, it is likely that dollar deposits will continue to suffer
a fall," said Lucio Garay. Mendez, an EcoGo analyst.
In official offices they assure that the situation is normal and that there is free availability of tickets.
In this line, the latest report on BCRA Banks shows that
the liquidity indicators in foreign currency of the financial system are above 80%.
This means that "banks can deal with the withdrawals of savers looking for another destination for their dollars," according to Francisco Ritorto, an economist at ACM.
"This is the result of the nervousness that occurred with the exchange market, something that happens normally. It is understood that a good part of these deposits correspond to
legal entities
instead of individuals, which allows us to interpret that the trickle could be more limited later on. Even so, although we can consider it 'expected',
the output in recent weeks has reached the highest since July of last year
," said Ritorto.
NE
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