With the figure of 8.4% inflation in April, the consultants begin to recalculate upwards the forecasts for May, which are already shaping up to reach 9%. However, and cautiously, they point out that it cannot be ruled out that this month the record reaches double digits.
"Unfortunately, May points to even higher inflation, above 10%. It was to keep the course of what was done until August 19. It was laborious, but it was the only path to a stable country with a future," tweeted former Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne.
The economist Sebastián Menescaldi points out that in the weekly measurement carried out by EcoGo, inflation in the second week of May gave 1.6% vs. 2.1% in the first week in food and beverages. "But we saw that other things are accelerating, such as airline tickets and medicines and that is bringing inflation already to 8.5%."
"It is possible that April's data will trigger further increases in some segments that will bring it closer to double digits. That will depend on how the exchange rate gap behaves next week," says Menescaldi.
For the economist Fernando Marull "beyond the fact that the parallel dollar loosened, the damage is already done, Inflation in May would be even higher, due to the impact of the exchange crisis and tariffs and would not fall below 9%. Any movement could take it to double digits. A devaluation of the dollar today triggers hyperinflation."
For the consultancy LCG "in 15 days prices accumulate a rise of 4.8%. The average of the last 4 weeks shows an increase of 9% showing that the April data looks like a floor. "
The list of increases in May includes electricity and gas rates, Subway (15%), fuels (4%), prepaid (5%), among the main and carries the drag of the escalation of the alternative dollar in the last days of April.
Aldo Abram, an economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, anticipates that they will have a floor of 8.6% for May. "It's most likely above 9% and that's assuming we don't have a run on the peso like we had in April. The levels of uncertainty are going to increase a lot. We can have double-digit inflation."
With data until May 12, in the measurement of Fundación Libertad y Progreso, consumer prices showed a rise of 7.3% so far this month, "showing a strong acceleration compared to the accumulated in the first two weeks of April (5.3%)".
They point out that "due to the acceleration of the last two weeks of April, the statistical drag exceeds 2 percentage points, double that in the previous months. But, in addition, regulated goods and services affect approximately 1.7 points in the rise of the general CPI. This is due to the fact that increases are registered in the month in electricity, gas, prepaid, private schools, fuels and public transport. "
"For May we expected inflation to be a little below 8%, but I think it can be overcome. Today double-digit inflation for May is not the most likely scenario but it cannot be ruled out," says economist Camilo Tiscornia.
"Double-digit inflation in May is a scenario that cannot be ruled out in any way. I fear that we may enter a situation in which today's high and unexpected inflation is the fuel for rising inflation tomorrow," says economist Ivan Carrino.
"Any price benchmark was lost, so everyone goes up thinking they fell short last month, and that can lead to an inflationary shock even without further issuance," Carrino adds.
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