For Javier Milei, the private sector
is the most powerful force
that mobilizes the economy.
He presents it as a personal crusade and a large part of the businessmen embrace that vision: they reward the decision to leave behind the “Argentina of decadence” with praise.
The labor reform, stopped in Justice, is also applauded.
And the little-mentioned
Large Investment Incentive Regime
included in the Omnibus Law.
But
the results are worrying
.
“Milei's only mandate is to fix the macro,” they say almost in chorus, admitting a very fragile institutional context.
In the exclusive private talks organized by funds and banks in Punta del Este, Carlos Melconian recognizes that “the main element is the
cultural oxygenation of Milei
, the work he did is very important.”
Although he immediately warns that
his “ideas and instruments” can burn out.
Carlos Melconian
By the way, the negotiations and debate in Congress over the law concentrated an
unprecedented interest in economic power.
“Hyper presidentialism does not exist, except when there are disciplined majorities in both Chambers.
This is not the case and, therefore, the President's overacting in setting the course.
But progress is not made with abuses, governing is also Congress
,” explains Ana Maria Mustapic, professor at the Torcuato Di Tella University.
From Washington, economist Eugenio Díaz Bonilla says that investors tell him that when
they go to Chile they talk to them about business and when they arrive in Argentina they only talk to them about politics
.
From his perspective, macro stability and political stability are key.
A management in Rome
That was understood by Flavio Cattaneo, global CEO of Enel who, in a brief meeting in Ezeiza with Javier Milei, reversed the sale of Edesur.
He commented on it in Rome at the energy leader's convention and arranged for Milei to
meet on the 11th with his admirer, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Giorgia Meloni, the Italian premiere who will be seen on the 11th with Milei in Rome.
As for Congress, there were points that were blocked and that move millions, such as
biofuels
, which confront powerful oil companies and sugar mills with oil companies amid accusations of “suitcases and suitcases” by followers of the President who are one-and-done lobbyists. another side.
An analysis by expert Claudio Molina shows coincidences in the Executive's project with those of the wide range of the opposition, including the left.
The central one is the one that
defers the import or that protects for 18 years
and there is a jerk due to the percentage of mixture at the pump.
In companies, few want to speak out loud and they slip something that seemed buried: “In this government
there are very curious people who like to know about the life and work of everyone
,” they point out, pointing to spies in the service of any political color.
Of course, there is a dividing line between healthy companies that are preparing to spend a long winter with restrictions on their production lines and export output and others with financial problems and too exposed to the domestic market.
When do you reach the floor?
Some, faced with falling sales, are expanding their branches to seek more volume.
“You have to
make noise when others are silent,”
says Daniel Saramaga, owner of Patagonia Flooring, which doubled investments.
Coto opened in Cariló, La Anónima is spreading in Neuquén.
Others wonder
when the fall hits the bottom
.
Auto parts manufacturers claim to have
received decreases in the volumes of parts
to be delivered, banks speak of a slight but persistent
increase in late payments
, cosmetics and white goods firms report collapses in orders.
Airlines confess that they are experiencing
the worst January in ticket sales
in decades, both in domestic and international flights, and what is seen on packed planes is people who anticipated it.
Similar is the case of construction, which is on the
verge of collapse
due to a public work that ran out of funds.
In this area, it was celebrated that at the last minute they launched the reversal of the Northern Gasduct, awarding the work to Techint and Sacde, of Marcelo Mindlin.
Ernesto Kohen, president of the Argentine-Swiss Chamber, summarizes the state of mind of these groups that range from Nestlé to the cement company Holcim, in
"optimism and expectations."
But Alejandro Reca, owner of San Ignacio, the only exporter of dulce de leche to Europe, speaks of tightness between a market in which ice
cream parlors reduced orders by 30%
, banks do not increase financing limits despite inflation and Argentina “it does not have agile institutions that help export.”
Santiago Caputo, Luis Caputo and Cúneo Libarona, leave the Cabinet meeting at Casa Rosada.
Photo Guillermo Rodríguez Adami
When they bring their complaints, the Ministry of Economy assures them that there has rarely been a president so determined to move towards zero deficit.
“Milei's commitment is absolute
,” they are told.
There they explained that, despite the fact that the
Omnibus Law was changed to combi
, they do not renounce the triple anchor, fiscal, monetary and exchange.
Another curiosity.
Those who frequent Luis Caputo slip that if his arrival in the Government was to obtain fresh funds, there was even talk of US$15 billion, that
possibility is ruled out
.
“We are not going to take on new debt here,” he says to himself when remembering the painful role of an Argentina with its hand outstretched always asking for money.
They are convinced that
the debt is the daughter of the deficit, and without a deficit, there is a way out
.
On the other hand, Wall Street assumes that the Argentine debt is an “
insurmountable problem”
and that the only alternative is a solution “to Lavagna”, tying payments to the country's growth, which according to the IMF would begin to be seen in 2025 with a 5% recovery.
Hopefully.
In the Casa Rosada they show that weekly inflation is falling.
They reply that these changes
“bring pain, take care of the people
,” as they said in a supermarket chain when the picketers asked for food.
They demanded an efficient and fast channel
from the Government .
And it was the kickoff to change the distribution of food towards institutions, bypassing the social movement and giving power to the evangelical churches and Caritas.
In the Ministry of Human Capital they justified the delay in reacting by saying that they first had to organize a ministry that
had 60% political positions and an organizational chart with so many functions that it measured 4.5 meters long.
Next week there will be a presidential tour
dominated by secrecy
.
Milei travels to Israel on Monday.
There will be a meeting between the President and Benjamin Netanyahu as well as a visit to the Western Wall and the areas affected by the terrorist attack of October 7.
Mario Montoto, head of the commercial chamber of both countries, highlights the value that Milei's visit has for Israel in this context of enormous geopolitical tension.
“It opens up many opportunities,” he predicts.
William Nielsen
Meanwhile, it was learned that figures such as Guillermo Nielsen, appointed ambassador to Paraguay with vexing issues on the agenda such as the
Hidrovía and the Yacyretá debt,
would be on the substitute bench.
Like Don Diego de Zama, the character of the brilliant Antonio di Benedetto, they could become victims of waiting.