Private consulting firms predict a slowdown in inflation in January, which
will bring that month's figure to 20%.
Although the index is still very high, it is 5.5 percentage points below the level that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had presented last December.
Analysts who experience firsthand the blows of the Argentine economy anticipate that there was a decline in the month that has just ended.
But the Monetary Fund sees something else:
in the analysis of the Argentine case, officials from Washington stated that
the index will be around 25%
, in line with December
The C&T retail price survey for GBA showed an increase of 19.6% in January.
In twelve months the increase was 242.2%.
January inflation was conditioned by a high statistical drag, close to 9% after the 25.5% in December.
Despite this, for C&T,
"the deceleration trend began the last week of December and continued throughout the month of January
. "
"The rise in retail prices in January was led by leisure, a seasonally key factor in all Januarys, but this year had a greater rise, of 36.8%, due to the impact of the adjustment of the official exchange rate and the rise general price," they point out from C&T.
The adjustments in public transportation in the GBA, of more than 40%, and the increase in fuel prices also affected.
The performance of Food and Beverages was key in the slowdown of the CPI in January.
These products came from an escalation that made them touch 31% in the last two weeks of December and
in January they increased 16.3%
.
"
The greatest slowdown occurred in vegetables, which practically did not vary between January and December,
followed by fruits, which averaged a monthly increase of 11.7%," they noted.
For its part, meats increased 16.3% in January, but the weekly evolution shows a significant slowdown.
Dairy and eggs rose 24% and beverages 22% monthly.
The consulting firm Orlando Ferreres y Asociados also sees January's registration below 20%.
"Inflation in the first four weeks of January accumulates 16.4% monthly.
At this rate it would not seem to reach 20%
," said economist Fausto Spotorno.
The Libertad y Progreso Foundation scores
19.4% in the January CPI-LyP.
"With this variation, our CPI slowed down 6.1 percentage points compared to the December data released by INDEC," they indicated.
Lautaro Moschet, economist at the LyP Foundation, pointed out that “the January CPI
leaves a drag of 3.1 points for February
, less than half that of December and the lowest since October.
This, in turn, will favor the deceleration for next month, which we project, maintaining the current trend,
will be around 14%.”
Also for EcoGo, the Retail Price Survey (RPM) gives
19.3% until the third week of January.
However, they warn that "in December the difference between the RPM and the INDEC was 3.5 percentage points. It is possible that in January we will be below given that the index is average."
For former minister Domingo Cavallo, a slowdown is also being recorded.
“The drop in the last 30 days was very pronounced.
In the first week of the month it was at 35% to reach 13% on January 25.
Taking into account the magnitude of this drop, it is possible that,
in the six days following January 25, the average monthly rate may have approached 20%.”
The perception of the consultants clashes with that of the Monetary Fund, which expects inflation of 25% for January.
"After an initial jump, inflation is expected to gradually fall. Inflation reached 25.5 percent monthly in December (down from around 13 percent monthly in November) and is projected to
remain above 25 percent. cent monthly in January
, as relative price imbalances and other price controls are eliminated."
Going forward, the Fund anticipates that "this is expected to be followed by a process of gradual disinflation, in which
monthly inflation will reach single-digit levels during the second quarter of 2024,
conditional on the achievement of the supposed fiscal consolidation, "improvements in the monetary policy framework and a reduction in corporate profit margins."
"Beyond 2024, annual (end-of-period) inflation is expected to gradually decline from around
150 percent this year
to single digits over the next five years, supported by continued restrictive policies and a recovery in demand for money from historically low levels," indicates the organization.