The Government manages to revive the agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the organization disburses US$ 4.7 billion that allows it to be paid and
clear the
short-term financial horizon.
The Central Bank has purchased
US$6,000 million
, which makes it possible to begin
paying off debt with importers,
even though net reserves remain in the negative range at around US$6,500 million.
For the Marina Dal Poggetto consultancy, the survey of the last week of January marked
a 1% increase
in the food and beverage category, which indicates a strong slowdown compared to previous weeks.
The agreement with the Fund essentially implies the
deepening of a fiscal adjustment
, with an increase in rates to reduce subsidies and the commitment to maintain a
competitive dollar
that allows the Central Bank, after slowly releasing the exchange rate, to accumulate US$ 10,000 million in reserves.
The Government is committed to facing an orthodox adjustment that includes a
sharp drop in the purchasing power of pensions
and a reduction in pension spending to regain confidence and increase demand for pesos.
There is information about the level of pension spending in the latest EcoGo report that is alarming: spending on social security benefits, which in December 2017 represented 9.6% of GDP, in December 2023 fell to 6.8% and,
with the liquefaction underway, it could drop to 5% of GDP and with many more retirees.
While the IMF is committed to making the peso gain confidence, simultaneously, the President said in two reports with foreign media that Argentina
is closer to dollarization
.
He argued that the Central Bank purchased US$5.9 billion since his Government started and the monetary base stands at US$7.5 billion so, for Milei, all that remains is to finish resolving the paid liabilities.
Milei returns to the fray with dollarization while the expectation gains strength regarding what the real exchange rate will be at the end of March based on
inflation that remains around 20% monthly with the official dollar growing at 2% per month. month.
Also the need for a
devaluation of the peso in the near future
opened another crack between those who say that it will be necessary for the Central Bank to gain reserves and those who prioritize a fixed dollar, although delayed, to use the exchange rate as an anchor for the inflation.
Economists who defend a high and competitive exchange rate favor the entry of dollars to gain support for the BCRA and meet the reserve goal committed to the IMF.
They consider that the Government will not be able to maintain the scheme of 2% monthly increase for the dollar and that it either devalues or accelerates the pace of the
crawling peg.
Supporters of the fixed exchange rate, even at the cost of it falling behind again, emphasize that
the important thing is to lower inflation
and that, for that, it is essential to have a stable dollar.
In the week, former minister Domingo Cavallo said that the Government should not devalue.
There are economists who say they have heard
Pablo Quirno
, Secretary of Finance, recommend Fernando Marengo's note in
Clarín
with a defined position in favor of not devaluing and maintaining the fixed exchange rate.
The clash of these planets could be important and the Government, with the postponement of the full application of the fuel tax and the increase in gas, gave some signs of seeking to somewhat moderate the rise in the
February price index
.
The devaluation and the inflationary stampede of December and January devoured the purchasing power of pensions and salaries and shortly thereafter it is already being discussed whether
another jump in the dollar is necessary that could unleash another jump in prices.
The Government devalued,
favored the recomposition of the profitability margins of companies
, agreed with the IMF and gained reserves, but has not yet managed to clear up doubts about
whether the adjustment
it launched will be viable.