Next Wednesday the 14th, the INDEC will release the inflation data for January, which according to the consultants,
ranged between 20% and 23%
.
According to these records, the level remained below December (25.5%), with a small deceleration in the third week of the month.
A first indication about what happened in the first month of the year is the data from the government of the City of Buenos Aires, which is usually in line with the CPI at the national level.
In the Buenos Aires area, the increase in January was 21.7%
, the largest since the beginning of the statistical series, in 2012. While the interannual variation of the index amounted to 238.5%.
From the consulting firm EcoGo, economist Rocío Bisang points out that her inflation estimate for January is
21.2%
.
“In general it was a month that was very marked by the drag left by the December increases.
There were some items such as Health where the increases in prepaid bills stood out or Transportation, where what weighed the most were the
increases in gasoline and train and bus costs
.
For economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of the consulting firm Equilibra, “the preliminary data for January was lower than that for December.
He gave us
22.5%,"
he commented when asked about his inflation forecasts.
The fall in purchasing power, with
wages lagging behind prices
, acted as a brake on remarking, leading to the pace of inflation slowing in January.
As
Clarín
reflected , demand fell in cars, shopping malls, supermarkets, gasoline and retail stores.
According to the study carried out by the Orlando consulting firm Ferreres & Asociados - based on more than fifteen thousand prices of goods and services from GBA - January inflation
would end up close to 18% monthly
with an interannual growth of 244.5% .
"On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5%," highlighted economist Fausto Spotorno, which marks an increase of 268.8% annually.
For the LIbertad y Progreso Foundation, the increase in January was around
19.4% monthly
.
Thus, it slowed down 6.1 percentage points compared to the December data released by INDEC.
For its part, the first Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the year from the Central Bank showed that the economists participating in this survey calculated a monthly inflation of
21.9% for January
(-3.1 percentage points compared to the previous REM For
February they estimated monthly inflation of 18% and for the year of 227%.
The LCG consulting firm, which estimates inflation of 23.1% for January, detected in its food survey that
higher price levels were again recorded in the first week of February.
"It accelerated 2.3 points compared to the previous week. The increase averages 13.4% in the last four weeks and 10.3% end to end in the same period," he noted in his latest report.
According to this consulting firm, Dairy, Meat and Baked goods explained almost 90% of the weekly inflation.
As for what will happen with
inflation in February,
consultants agree that it
will decrease compared to January,
a seasonally higher month.
According to the economist of the Libertad Foundation, Lautaro Moschet, “the January CPI leaves
a drag of 3.1 points for February,
less than half that of December (6.8 percentage points).
It is the lowest since October.
This, in turn, will favor the slowdown for next month, which we project, maintaining the current trend,
will be around 14%,” he risked.