The great 'high' of Afghan opium

The price of Afghan opium is through the roof.

A kilogram of the juice produced by poppies—the source of narcotic analgesics such as morphine and stronger derivatives such as heroin—costs about $408 in the market (376 euros at the current exchange rate).

This figure is almost five times higher than that recorded in 2022, thus marking the highest level in two decades.

The ban on cultivation, imposed by the Taliban regime, has had a great impact on poppy production in all regions of that mountainous country, sunk in the heart of Asia and which was, until recently, the world's main supplier of poppy. the substance.

At the national level, according to estimates by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the cultivated area of ​​poppies decreased by 95.3% in 2023 (going from 233,000 hectares to 10,800 hectares).

The decline has disrupted the fragile economy, which appeared to have stabilized at the end of 2022 compared to the decline it had after August 15, 2021, when the Taliban entered Kabul and took control of the country.

“The ban has deprived millions of people of income,” says Kate Clark, co-director of the nonprofit Afghanistan Analysts Network.

Although it was announced in April 2022, the veto was seriously applied starting with the fall planting season of that same year, therefore, in 2023 it completed its first period of validity.

The ban has put its finger on the sore spot in a country where millions of people suffer from hunger, due to decades of armed conflict, corruption, political instability and which now also suffer the effects of climate change with severe droughts and freezing temperatures during the winter. .

“It has cost farmers more than $1 billion in lost income [€920 million], not including losses related to the processing, trade and export of opiates,” explains William Byrd, senior expert on Afghanistan at the US Institute of Peace, an independent agency.

And it is expected to have a negative effect on the overall economy.

Statistics in that territory are scarce and unreliable, and there are still no details on the speed of productive activity in 2023. The World Bank, however, estimates that Afghan GDP decreased by 21% in 2021 and another 6% in 2022 The pace of the economy remained weak throughout the previous year and the prospects for 2024 are poor, given the continuation of the opium ban and the decrease in humanitarian aid, which occurred with the return of the Taliban regime.

“The economic effect of the ban has been somewhat mitigated by some stocks, from previous harvests,” adds Byrd.

“But poor households in rural areas do not have that cushion and suffer more.

And as they are depleted, the macroeconomic impact worsens,” he adds.

Since the late 70s, opium has played a fundamental role in that country, especially in rural areas.

In 2022, this product contributed one third of the total value of national agricultural production, according to UNODC.

At the household level, its sale represents up to 50% of a family's income.

In some regions it occupied a significant proportion of the land.

In Helmand, an area in the south, the scene of hundreds of murders almost always carried out by the Taliban, a fifth of the land planted was dedicated to poppy.

“In some districts the proportion was even higher and had displaced highly relevant foods, such as wheat,” the United Nations sources detail.

It is this cereal that is filling the fields again, since its germination cycle coincides with that of the poppy.

An analysis focused on four provinces (Farah, Helmand, Kandahar and Nangarhar, which accounted for 74% of poppy production in 2022), indicated that approximately 68% of arable land had been replanted with grain.

This means fewer resources.

Because while a hectare of wheat sells for $770, a hectare of poppies generates around $10,000, highlights a report from the UN Office.

“Local agriculture is experiencing a real drama,” says José Miguel Calvillo, professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Political Sciences and Sociology of the Complutense University.

“Whether we like it or not, the sale of opium is one of the main sources of income,” highlights the author of the book Afghanistan: a permanent conflict (Ediciones Trea, 2023).

But the effect of the veto also crosses borders.

Afghan opium is used to produce 95% of the heroin consumed in Europe, says Orzala Nemat, a research associate at the Humanitarian Policy Group, in an article published in Chatham House, a think tank, based in London.

“The ban could lead to a global shortage and it is unlikely that Myanmar, now the leading producer of the poppy, and other countries, will be able to fill the gap in the short term,” UNODC sources say.

The gap is important.

With the 2023 harvest, some 333 tons of opium have been generated, 94.6% less than a year before.

This translates into less heroin: between 24 and 38 tons of export-quality semi-synthetic opiate (with a purity of between 50% and 70%), which is a fraction compared to those of 2022 (when they became between 350 and 580 tons).

Fentanyl boost

Such a drop leads to a reduction in purity or the replacement of heroin by other substances in retail markets, some of which can be even more harmful, such as fentanyl, explains the UNODC.

This is not the first time that the Taliban has turned off the opium tap.

They did it during his previous regime (1996-2001).

The veto was similar to the current one, at that time there were sufficient reserves among farmers, which served to weather the situation and continue fueling the demand for illicit drugs.

Today, however, the amount of opium poppy and other opiates in stock in the form of large stocks or inventories is unknown, but continued seizures and field reports suggest that farmers and traders are depleting this inventory, according to the UNODC.

“The Afghan crisis is completely forgotten by the Western world,” adds Calvillo.

And this lack of attention could be taken advantage of by criminal groups.

Declining revenues along the opioid supply chain in Afghanistan could spur alternative illegal activities.

“It would potentially lead to an increase in trafficking of other synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine,” concludes the UNODC.

Follow all the information on

Economy

and

Business

on

Facebook

and

X

, or in our

weekly newsletter

Subscribe to continue reading

Read without limits

Keep reading

I am already a subscriber

_