After knowing the January inflation (20.6%), the majority of economists estimate that
in February the price index would continue to slow down,
although
not substantially
.
Based on all the increases that have been taking place this month, especially in regulated prices such as transportation and rates, experts estimate that the increase
could extend to
18% or more.
The consulting firm LCG recalls that “in February the impact of the transportation increase in the AMBA
will be felt
: the subway, 250%;
train tickets, 170% and buses, 250%, which add to the drag left by the increases granted in mid-January."
"We hope that, together,
they will contribute almost 10 points of inflation
," estimated the consultant. "Also this month the increase in
gasoline and diesel
will have an impact due to the correction of the Fuel tax and the other increase in prepaid installments (+30 %), which add
1.3 additional points.
With these three items,
inflation would have a floor of 15% monthly,
she estimated.
This consultancy
sees records close to 20% monthly for February and March.
“Today the fall in demand (recession) and the opening of imports emerge as the main factors of price discipline,” he considered.
Video
The mayor of Córdoba, harsh with the Government for the removal of transportation subsidies.
With data up to the second week of this month, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation projects that the national CPI
will rise 17.4% in February
, explains economist Eugenio Marí, from that foundation.
“Excluding the regulated ones, the national CPI would be around 15% monthly.
The most important thing is that
the weekly variation of the CPI slowed down to below 2%, a pace comparable to that of October last year,”
he says.
According to the consulting firm ACM, for the coming months, the market foresees
still high inflation, although with a downward trend.
According to the REM, it is estimated that in February inflation would be 18% monthly, decreasing to 15.3% monthly in March and reaching single digit figures by June.
“Relative lags still persist in various categories of the CPI compared to general inflation, especially in
Education;
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and Communication
,” said the consultant.
Video
The value of public transport and tolls from April.
"On the other hand, the Government has already announced a progressive removal of subsidies for the coming months, which will translate into increases in transportation rates and other public services, which will end up impacting the general level of prices," he reflects.
Economist Hernan Lechter, from CEPA, also emphasizes the role that regulated prices will have in February.
“At the beginning of the month , bus and train
fares were increased
by around 250% in the metropolitan region.
In the rest of the country there were increases of the same amount that will intensify with the announcement of the elimination of the Internal Compensation Fund,” he explains.
The economist adds that, “in addition, a 6.4% gasoline adjustment was applied in February – corresponding to the 2022 freeze – and
three increases of 4.4% (each) are expected in March, April and May
, corresponding to the update of the tax freeze during 2023,” he recalls.
It is known that the increase in fuel costs
impacts the prices of many other goods and services.
NE