Due to the devaluation and the sharp increase in the value of the basic basket, with the population's income almost stagnant, in the first two months of Javier Milei's administration there was a jump in the levels of indigence and poverty.
The Social Observatory of the UCA (Argentine Catholic University) estimates that
the population in poverty went from 9.6%
in the third quarter of 2023
to 14.2% in December 2023 and 15% in January
2024. And The poverty level
went from 44.7%
observed in the third quarter of 2023
to 49.5% in December and 57.4% in January
, according to the Report
"Estimation of the effects of the post-devaluation Inflationary Impact
. Scenario to December 2023 and January 2024".
57.4% is the
highest level of the series that began in 2004,
when it was 54%.
Projected to the entire country
there would be almost 27 million poor people
, of which 7 million would be indigent.
It is assumed that
in February these social indicators could have receded even more
because retirement and pension benefits remained unchanged in relation to December and January, until now there was no update of the minimum wage or unemployment benefit, there were salary increases in very few unions and the decline in economic activity worsened, with a decline in employment levels.
For its part, there were increases in passenger transport rates and meat prices rose again.
The UCA Report explains that the
poverty projections
for December 2023 and January 2024 were made by adjusting labor and non-labor income for the third quarter of 2023 based on real variations in salaries and modifications in income and monetary transfer programs. .
In turn, the consumption baskets (CBA and CBT) were updated based on the variation in the values corresponding to their increase according to INDEC estimates.”
When considering only households that receive social assistance, the level of indigence in the third quarter of 2023 was 19.7% of people, in December it increased to 28.8% and in
January it decreased to 23.8%
, as a consequence of compensatory policies, says the Report.
For example, the increase in the value of the AUH and the food card.
Meanwhile,
those who live in households that benefit from social policies
had a poverty level of 76.5% in the third quarter of 2023, 81.9% in December 2023 and
85.5% in January 2024.
In January, in the Metropolitan Region the poverty basket for an adult was $193,146 and for
a typical family it was $596,823,
without considering rent.
The UCA Report highlights that “to assess the worsening of the social situation, two simulation exercises were carried out based on the adjustments applied to the microdata of the EDSA (Argentine Social Debt Survey) for the third quarter of 2023. The first recalculates the level of indigence and poverty in the situation of increase in baskets and updating of labor and non-labor income for December 2023. The second of the exercises reproduces the situation of basket costs and the labor and non-labor income of the households of January 2024.”
Martín Rozados, director of the Master's Degree in Econometrics at the Di Tella University, projected a poverty rate of 46.8% for January, equivalent to 21.8 million people nationwide.
According to their estimates - which use a methodology based on INDEC microdata, unlike the UCA which projects based on its own survey - poverty rose from 38.5% in the third quarter of last year, to 46.3%. % in the fourth quarter of 2023 and
46.8% in January.
The INDEC does not disseminate the quarterly figures of indigence and poverty due to the alteration caused in the measurement by the collection of the half bonus, in June and December.
That is why it publishes these figures
every six months,
taking into account the January-June and July-December periods.
The latest official data, corresponding to the first half of 2023, showed 40.1% poverty.
The situation as of December will be announced on March 27.
NE