No more “whatever it takes” and expensive measures, the State is entering a period of lean times.
The Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, presented, this Sunday evening on TF1's 20 Hours, a plan of 10 billion euros in savings.
Necessary to reduce the public deficit to 4.4% of GDP in 2024, an objective declared and maintained by the government, while the debt has increased with the "whatever it takes" and weighs on the budget of France with the rise in interest rates.
“Growth is slowing all over the world, particularly in Europe.
In this context, I will revise growth from 1.4% to 1% for 2024. From the moment we have less growth, there is less tax revenue.
Savings are therefore necessary,” explained Bruno Le Maire.
Fewer credits granted to ministries
The effort will not weigh on households with an increase in taxes, “the easy way out”, points out the Minister of the Economy, in agreement with the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister.
“The idea is to say that we sometimes asked the French for efforts.
This time, it is the State which must make efforts,” say those around the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal.
The two men met no less than four times this week to decide together and precisely on the economic measures that they were going to announce, and how to convey the political message, after a meeting, Tuesday at the Élysée, around the president of the Republic.
“We have chosen to cut expenses immediately and massively.
This is the path of courage and responsibility, insists Bruno Le Maire.
The State is tightening its belt.
» “The question is to see how we can manage to make savings quickly, and for them to be clearly perceptible to the French,” we add to Matignon.
These 10 billion euros of savings are divided into two parts.
5 billion euros will be taken from the management (real estate, energy, purchasing, etc.) of all ministries, without exception.
A decree will be issued “in the coming days” to reduce the credits granted.
The remaining 5 billion will be saved through the cancellation of public policies.
One billion will be taken from the budgets of state operators such as Cnes (National Center for Space Studies), France Compétences or Business France;
800 million euros in public development aid, notably paid to the United Nations (UN).
The budget of MaPrimeRénov'raboté
Another example, and the only measure having a direct impact on individuals, the budget devoted to MaPrimeRénov' will be reduced by 1 billion euros.
“We had planned for it to increase from 3.5 billion in 2023 to 5 billion euros in 2024. It will therefore be at 4 billion euros this year,” explains Bruno Le Maire.
This will be accompanied by simplification measures, requested by the building and construction federations.
» A paradoxical reduction given the objective of 200,000 renovations per year desired by the State in 2024.
The government will achieve these two savings packages without needing to go through a amending finance bill (PLFR), a time mentioned.
At least for now.
“We will see how the situation develops, in particular whether the interest rates set by central banks fall or not.
In function, we reserve the possibility of carrying out a PLFR in the summer of 2024, before initiating further reductions in expenditure within the framework of the 2025 finance bill”, underlines Bruno Le Maire.
The executive wants to avoid this scenario which would certainly require resorting to 49.3, which Gabriel Attal wants to avoid.
To meet the objectives, new measures will undoubtedly be required.
However, the prospect of a PLFR seems “inevitable”, in the eyes of Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at the economic consultancy firm BDO.
“With this plan, the government seems to be sending a signal, but it will not be enough,” she says.
It still seems too optimistic, with growth at 1% when the majority of organizations forecast 0.8%.
The same goes for the public deficit, which should be at 4.9% rather than 4.4%..." Clearly, if Bercy wants to meet its objectives, "bigger savings", with undoubtedly a real impact on households , should be essential in the months to come.
But for the government, this is probably not the time to tackle it.
This first warning shot responds, immediately, to a major economic issue, but also political, for the executive, with a risk of deterioration of the debt and France's rating, which could happen just before the elections European.
And behind, the risk of a boulevard for the National Rally, already a big favorite in the election.