In January, the economy recorded
a trade surplus of US$797 million
as a result of an increase in the level of exports of 9.6% compared to the same month of the previous year and a sharp drop - of 14.3% - in imports. .
Yesterday, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) reported that exports totaled US$5,398 million.
An increase that was mainly due to the improvement in exports of primary products and manufactured goods of agricultural origin, which in January 2023 suffered a sharp cut
due to the drought
.
In turn, imports totaled US$4,601 million, due to
the drop in the level of activity.
The surplus figure in the trade balance contrasts with the deficit of US$443 million in the same month of 2022. However, it is
below that achieved last December, when it reached US$1,018 million.
For Elizabeth Bacigalupo, head of macroeconomics at the consulting firm Abeceb, she analyzes: the result of the balance is in line with what was expected.
"January begins to set
the tone for what the year is going to be in terms of trade balance
: a significant balance surplus, perhaps a little lower than expected but significant in a context where expos rise and fall. "I impose them strongly," she says. According to the expert, "this trend will dominate in the first recessionary semester, with imports falling sharply, in step with
the weakness of domestic demand and the level of activity
."
"We expected a slightly higher trade balance, it was weaker on the side of exports of manufactured goods of industrial origin," he warns. "There were significant falls in exports of chemical products, plastic materials, etc. Because they are reported in the sector input supply problems in some companies," he explained.
And “in imports, except cars, capital goods, consumer goods and intermediate inputs fell sharply.”
Economist Claudio Caprarulo of the consulting firm Analytica points out another aspect: "It is the first month with the new SEDI system that replaces the previous SIRA and it may be that there are effects of the liberalization of a demand that was restricted," he says.
"This may explain why the drop has not been even greater; for example, the monthly variation in imports was nominally positive and registered a slight drop discounting seasonality. To measure in January 2019 the interannual drop had been 27%," he added.
According to economist Gabriel Caamaño, the fall in the values and quantities of imports are "a bad sign for activity in January 2024. Exports recovering hand in hand with the good fine harvest," he analyzed on social networks.
Regarding
the expectation of the trade balance for the rest of the year,
Bacigalupo expects "a high trade surplus, probably
close to US$15 billion
, which is the basis with which the Government will buy dollars and will improve its net reserves position from negative levels,” he said.
From Analytica, meanwhile, they project that "the fall will be sustained. "Lower levels of consumption and investment along with a more expensive dollar will compensate for the liberalization of the system that the Government is undergoing, because we remember that the payment of imports remains restricted," Caprarulo noted.
Last year, the country registered a trade deficit of US$6,925 million compared to a negative balance in 2022 of US$6,923 million.
Among other reasons, because affected by the shortage of monetary reserves, the Government restricted access to dollars for the payment of imports between mid-2022 and last December.