If the “positive financial trajectory” which “is confirmed”, the most optimistic scenarios have been thwarted.
Unemployment Insurance sharply revised downwards its surplus forecast for 2024 on Tuesday due to the economic situation, according to a press release from Unédic.
Also in question, lower compensation by the State for exemptions from contributions.
Debt reduction “continues” but therefore remains “slowed down”.
The surplus, still forecast at 5 billion euros last September, would ultimately only be 1.1 billion euros, before starting to rise again in 2025 (3 billion), 2026 (5.3 billion) and 2027 (11.2 billion), according to these forecasts.
Thirteen billion euros more debt
To finance France Travail, which replaced Pôle emploi since January 1, and France Compétences, in charge of professional training, the Social Security financing law adopted in December provides for less compensation by the State for exemptions from contributions. to unemployment insurance.
Revenues had thus already been reduced by 2 billion euros in 2023. The financial loss induced by this budgetary measure will be 2.6 billion euros in 2024, 3.35 billion in 2025 and 4.1 billion in 2026, or 12.05 billion over four years, recalls Unédic, which emphasizes that it “clearly slows down the reduction of unemployment insurance debt”.
For good reason, these levies on revenue “reduce the capacity of Unemployment Insurance to repay its debt by a total of 13 billion euros”.
Indeed, the amount of this debt “would be 38.6 billion euros at the end of 2027”, whereas “it would have been 25.5 billion without these levies”, specifies the organization.
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However, "the social partners continue to ensure efficient and responsive financial management" of unemployment insurance, so as to be able to continue to "pay unemployment benefits to job seekers every month", assures Unédic.
Furthermore, these financial forecasts do not take into account “the effects of the transformation of Pôle emploi into France Travail”, and expect GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, lower than that of the government which is 1%. , and growth of 1.3% from 2025 to 2027.
As for job creations, which would peak at 29,000 this year, they would start to rise again from 2025, with 112,000 creations, before an “acceleration” from 2026 (129,000) and in 2027 (200,000).
“From 2025, the ramp-up of reforms and above all a more favorable economic situation would reduce the number of unemployed to 2.4 million in 2027”, compared to just over 3 million today, Unédic anticipates.