A Russian LNG ship, in 2017, in Saint Petersburg.POOL New (Reuters)
As we approach the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin's energy continues to flow toward the European Union.
Between 2021 and 2023, arrivals of liquefied natural gas (LNG, the one that travels by ship) from the Eurasian country have grown by 11%, according to figures published this Wednesday by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA, for its acronym in English).
Last year, three countries accounted for 80% of these imports: Spain, France and Belgium, with the ports (and regasification plants) of Zeebrugge (Belgium), Montoir-de-Bretagne (France), Bilbao (Spain), Gate ( Netherlands), Dunkeque (France) and Mugardos (Spain) as the main entry routes.
“Europe's success in reducing imports of Russian gas by tube contrasts with the increase in shipments from Russia,” emphasize the technicians of the environmentalist organization.
In the case of Spanish ports, Russian gas landings doubled between 2021 and 2023.
Efficiency, high temperatures... and demand destruction
Since 2022, when the war began, European gas demand has fallen 20% to its lowest level in a decade.
The declines – a product of greater efficiency, warm winter temperatures (which have reduced the burning of gas in heating) and the destruction of demand due to high prices – have been particularly significant in two of the most industrial countries of the Twenty-Seven: Germany and Italy.
The IEEFA forecasts assume that LNG consumption will peak next year, only to fall thereafter.
In 2023, in fact, continental demand for gas was already lower than expected by this study center.
More information
LNG: the three letters that have forever changed the European energy paradigm
“Europe has managed to navigate the energy crisis thanks to efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable energies,” reads the study published this Tuesday, which also warns of the risk that continental import and regasification terminals have a lot of idle capacity. in 2030.
Low utilization rate of regasification plants
Since February 2022, when the first Russian missiles began to fall on Ukrainian soil, European countries have launched eight new LNG processing plants.
If all these new facilities are completed, capacity would triple what is required by the end of the decade.
All, despite the fact that the average utilization ratio of the 37 European terminals does not reach 60% and that eight of them are below 50%.
“We have experienced the dangers of risking the security of energy supply by relying too much on a single source,” says Anna Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, head of energy analysis at IEEFA in the Old Continent.
“Europe must learn from its mistakes in the past and not become overly dependent on the United States, which last year already provided almost half of its liquefied natural gas imports,” she adds.
In the last two years (2022 and 2023), European countries have spent more than €170 billion on LNG.
Of that figure, just over 75,000 million went to the coffers of American gas companies;
and almost 24,000 million, to Russian and Qatari firms, respectively.
In the case of Spain – which has the largest network of regasification plants on the continent: seven – payments for imports amounted to more than 12,000 million in the case of the United States, more than 7,400 million in that of Russia and just over 1,100 in the case of Russia. that of Qatar.
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