As expected, with inflation of 20.6% monthly,
mass consumption fell - in January - 3.8%
compared to the same month last year.
Thus, a curve of positive numbers that had been recorded continuously since May 2023 was cut despite the high inflationary pressure.
The data arises from a survey by the consulting firm Scentia.
Not even December inflation, which rose to 25.5%, managed to flatten people's purchasing decisions in supermarkets and self-service stores, especially in a seasonally high month due to the Holidays.
But finally, the January data showed a drop in sold volumes,
basically punished by a 296.6% year-on-year increase in prices.
A level
which remained
above general inflation
, of 254.2% in the same period, according to INDEC.
Within the line of packaged products,
all categories fell
- except for the impulsive products that supermarkets desperately display in the checkout lines of mega-stores to attract the attention and temptation of consumers.
Osvaldo del Rio, president of Scentia, explained that “although this result of the monthly drop was expected, the different behavior between channels drew attention given that, after 18 months of decline, the
self-service channel achieved a slightly positive of 0.5%
. While supermarkets, which for more than two years showed positive indicators,
suffered a decline in their sales of 8.3%,”
he says.
According to the analyst, “it is important to take into consideration that the bases of comparison are part of the explanation for this situation, given that self-service stores are compared with -9.1% in January 2023 and supermarkets with +7.8%.
However, there are other components that add to this new stage, for example, the strong changes in prices and the loss of purchasing power,” del Rio lists, to name just a few.
Another factor that reduced sales on the shelves was the elimination of the Care Prices program and the possibility of paying in installments with a credit card.
Another particular characteristic in the January survey is that while supermarkets had an even movement in the AMBA and in the Interior, self-service grew in the AMBA and declined in the Interior.
“We may possibly find the explanation for this issue in a lower tourist exodus, which is always helpful for this channel at this time of year.
According to the consulting firm NiesenIQ, the drop in consumption in tourist areas was 15% in January, compared to the same month of the previous season.
"Another aspect to consider, according to del Rio, is
the possible drop in sales from border cities,
which had an important impact on the interior and are no longer as attractive under current conditions," he said.
The analyst believes that, in this context of price and salary increases that do not accompany this trend, “it is likely that habits that we have already seen will also intensify, with a greater
frequency of purchases and fewer units per ticket,
in order to to take more care of spending in each act of purchase,” he noted.
Also according to the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC), the consumption capacity of families
would continue its downward trend given that "the new Government has been slowing the rate of increase in allocations and subsidies to families
," he explained in a statement. statement where it reported its own consumption indicator.
This data from January, from the chamber, showed
a decline of 1.7%
in the interannual comparison (yoy), implying a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.1% compared to the month of December (that is, discounting the usual seasonal effects of consumption at throughout the year).
“The high inflation rates
impacted purchasing power and there was no possible advance of inflation rates
that would sustain the consumption index with a positive sign as had happened in December, which is why January 2024 once again showed a negative sign,” explained the CAC. .