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Foreign investors ask to see Miguel Pichetto to clear up doubts about policy support for adjustment

2024-02-22T00:51:30.169Z

Highlights: Foreign investors ask to see Miguel Pichetto to clear up doubts about policy support for adjustment. There is concern about the reforms and Congress. Some value Milei's willingness and ability to pay the debt, but there are also doubts about governance. Foreign banks say they are healthy, so could accelerate recovery of the economy. But in the meetings held by funds and banks in recent days, doubts also arose about the viability of the adjustment in a context of recession. Strictly speaking, the Government expects a recovery only in the third quarter.


The meetings continue in Buenos AiresThere is concern about the reforms and CongressThe funds buy short bonds


Miguel Pichetto became a gravitating figure on Wall Street.

Since his We Make Federal Coalition block frustrated the approval of the Bases Law and forced a change of route in the shock plan, the deputy is seen as a key lever to tilt the political balance in favor of Javier Milei's government.

For this reason,

in recent weeks he was requested by foreign funds.

"They want to talk to opposition figures, Pichetto is in high demand and had meetings with various funds

," said a source from New York.

The contacts were not confirmed by the deputy, but the truth is that interest intensified in the last two weeks with the arrival of investment banks and funds to the country, and trips by local operators from Buenos Aires to the Big Apple.

Hedge funds accompanied Barclays, UBS and Citi, while a delegation from HSBC will disembark next week.

Some value Milei's willingness and ability to pay the debt, but there are also doubts about governance.

"How long can it last? They came more from the political side than the economy

," said an economist who received them.

The fall of the Bases law led Milei to tighten spending cuts (on salaries, subsidies and transfers to the provinces) and unleash an open war with the governors.

In this scenario, Pichetto appears as a possible lighthouse in the face of political uncertainty.

"Clashes with Governors and Congress are not seen well by investors

," the deputy said last week.

Mauricio Macri's former vice presidential candidate knows several of the funds that closely follow the Argentine situation, such as VR Capital and BlackRock.

He met with them and Barclays in April 2019 during a tour of the United States, where he tried to allay fears about debt payments due to an eventual return of Kirchnerism to power, which ended up happening.

Now, in New York, there is a climate of optimism that is reflected in the rally in sovereign bonds in the last 10 days, with increases of up to 12%.

Several funds bought some of these titles in dollars at the same time that the Government announced in advance the fiscal and financial surplus registered in January and the slowdown in inflation to 20.6% in the same period.

But in the meetings held by funds and banks in recent days, doubts also arose about the viability of the adjustment in a context of recession.

According to a recent HSBC report, "the main challenge for the government remains how to maintain social and political support for a stabilization plan that depends on a significant fiscal adjustment and implies a major recession."

Barclays projects a fall in the economy of 4% in 2024. Hence the bet is on Argentine bonds of 3 to 6 months, which was reflected in the fall of financial dollars and the exchange gap.

"Outside investors like the changes, Milei says that he will strictly comply with the zero deficit, others wonder if it is politically sustainable

," said Javier Timmerman, of AdCap.

Pichetto is in favor of ceding delegated powers to Milei, but is cautious about what he describes as "a very hard blow to the middle class

. "

"There is an adjustment that is developing and we must have political sustainability," he said last week after the failure of the omnibus law and criticism of Caputo for the apparent lack of dialogue with the governors.

This Monday, the Minister of Economy received the number 2 of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, and her team, who disembarked on a surprise trip to Buenos Aires to closely monitor the program.

The Fund also asked questions about the direction of the lawless fiscal adjustment and the social situation in a context that, according to Caputo, will be "very tough" in the coming months.

Strictly speaking, the Government expects a recovery only in the third quarter.

Perhaps for this reason, the CEO of Citi, Jane Fraser, asked the minister last Friday how she could help him, during the meeting they held at Casa Rosada with the Chief of Staff, Nicolás Posse.

Foreign banks say they are healthy, so they could accelerate the recovery.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2024-02-22

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