Although dollar bonds show mixed results, after having operated without the external reference of Wall Street on Monday, which did not operate due to a holiday in the United States, Argentine debt maintains improvements of more than 12% and prices have already recovered everything they They lost in the last four years.
Debt securities returned to the levels they had in September 2020, after the restructuring carried out by the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán
.
With a rise of almost 12 so far this month, the Global 2030 in dollars is trading just below US$ 48. A few days after the agreement with the bondholders it had reached US$ 50, and then deflated near US $40.
After a rally last week, these days the country risk managed to pierce the floor of 1,800 points: this Tuesday, the indicator that measures the JP Morgan bank settled at 1,762, a value that it had not touched for more than a year.
Paradoxically, the last time it had closed below 1,800 points had been in May 2022, before the debt crisis in pesos that led to the accelerated departure of former Minister Guzmán.
Different factors appear behind the improvement of these bonds: despite doubts about their sustainability, the Government of Javier Milei managed to overcome the political defeat that meant the fall of the Omnibus Law in Congress and "compensate" for it in the eyes of the market with good news on the economic and financial front.
Last week several 'small victories'
were chained
for the economic team, the confirmation that inflation is beginning to subside after the post-devaluation flash in December, the consolidation of the Central Bank as a buyer of dollars in the Single and Free Exchange Market, despite the greater influx of the private sector, the good tenders from the Central and the Treasury and the financial surplus reported by Minister Luis Caputo on Friday.
Martín Polo, from Cohen, stated: "Between the politically incorrect and the economically correct,
the market prefers to highlight the latter
. In the last week it reflected this with a notable rise in sovereign bonds in dollars and the collapse of the exchange rate gap. The euphoria It is controlled by watching the movie in the background: the exchange surplus occurs because the stocks are still in force and the improvement in the fiscal result is based on liquefying spending, so to make it sustainable a fundamental fiscal program is required that must inevitably go through Congress. ".
The debate now in the City is whether this rally is
sustainable
and whether the spread of these bonds still has the possibility of further compression.
At PPI they noted: "The answer is complicated. A priori, given the ferocity of the rises, it is most likely that we will see some calm this week, at least in magnitude. Breaking down the constructive arguments behind investor optimism, practically all of them have its flats regarding its sustainability over time".
"However, we agree that the first fiscal signs (even with the reservations about the short-termism of various aspects of the number) allow us to remain optimistic in the medium/long term," they added and warned: "Perhaps the social mood is the main risk in the performance of these months of dirty work.