The weight of
energy, transportation and water
public services
in relation to salaries
is growing rapidly and
by the middle of this year it could reach the highest levels so far this century
, due to the correction of relative prices carried out by La Libertad Avanza.
An estimate by the consulting firm
EcoGo
shows that the "impact of a
type basket of public services on salaries
" on average would reach
13.8% by mid-2024
, a figure that has not been seen since the peak of 2019 (12.2 %) and, further back, in December 2001 (14.8%), always under the assumption of the next planned rate increases.
Currently it is 8.7%
.
The situation occurs as a consequence of
increases in electricity rates
, which reflect a
reduction in subsidies
for high-income households nationwide, and
increases in public transportation
, also to reduce State aid to users and sustain the fiscal adjustment underway.
But it is also motivated by the
strong liquefaction of salaries
in recent months.
And there remain, later, adjustments in gas and water.
Salaries vs services, a history
The historical context and the ceilings of this relationship of public services versus salaries have to do with the
fall of the "1 peso, 1 dollar" Convertibility
, starting in January 2002, when the prices of the economy were deindexed, and mid-2019 , at which time Mauricio Macri almost completed a recomposition of relative prices after three years of gradual but constant adjustments.
In that sense, President
Javier Milei specifies an objective that Macri set for his second term.
"Do the same, but faster
," the former president had promised.
According to a work by the
Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy (IIEP) of the UBA and Conicet
, the weight of electricity and gas energy services in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA) as a proportion of the average salary -Average Taxable Remuneration of the Stable Workers, RIPTE in February indicates that it is 5.6% for a high-income residential user (N1 of the segmentation);
1.7% for one of middle income (N3);
and 1.6% for a low-income person (N2).
However, taking the minimum income of each income segment ($2,088,881 for N1; $180,000 for N2; and $596,823 for N3), the average bill for electricity and gas public services in the AMBA has a weight of 1.6%, 5.1% and 1.6%, respectively, says the work led by technicians
Alejandro Einstoss and Julián Rojo
.
Regarding transportation, the economist
Rafael Skiadaressis
, consulted by
Clarín
, built the historical series of the weight of
traveling by bus in different cities in Latin America
as a percentage of the minimum wage.
It found that
this year in Buenos Aires a basket of 50 trips occupies 5% of the minimum wage, the same level as in Mexico and above Quito, Ecuador (3.8%)
, the cheapest city.
The ceiling is in Lima, Peru (17.1%).
However, on average last year, Buenos Aires was the cheapest, as also happened in 2022 and, further back, between 2005 and 2015.
Buenos Aires also has
the highest percentage of subsidy as a total cost of transportation in the region
, with a peak of 90% in 2023, although all passengers in Latin American cities had state aid for close to 50%, as an incentive to do not use cars in urban areas.
Going back, it is worth noting that in 2019 the peak of the weight of traveling by bus as a percentage of the minimum wage was 6.5%, and the recent historical ceiling was between 2001 and 2022, with 18.8%.
"Is there any
'desirable' level
?" Clarín asked.
Skiadaressis answered: "In several works of the World Bank, 10% (cost of transportation relative to salaries) is set as a reasonable ceiling. Another example is the Transportation Voucher in Brazil, where it is a right of formal workers for which the cost "Monthly transportation costs cannot exceed 6% of your salary. If it exceeds 6%, the difference is made by the employer."
Meanwhile,
Sebastián Menescaldi
, director of EcoGo, stated that "
there is no ideal number
; the historical average from 1995 to date is 8.6%."