This Friday there will be another increase in gasoline and diesel throughout the country
, on the occasion of the
scheduled increase in internal fuel taxes
.
The impact on prices will have a
ceiling of 3.9% in the City of Buenos Aires
, since it is the place where the cheapest values are (with the exception of Patagonia, where the tax is not paid).
However, on March 1, oil companies could take the opportunity to add the
devaluation
of the peso against the dollar (2% monthly) and transfer the recent increases in
biofuels
.
And the refiners are waiting for the moment to recover the "delay" that they claim they have in relation to a "parity."
According to qualified sources in the sector,
super gasoline should be around 1.20 to 1.23 dollars per liter
.
With the current values in the City, $744 in YPF or just under $0.90,
the gap is above 33%
.
An important anchor, in this sense, is the
depth of the decline in economic activity
this summer.
Fuel sales at service stations fell 5.8% year-on-year in January
, as a result of double-digit declines in all brands except YPF, which continues to eat up the market from the rest by having prices between 3% and 5% cheaper .
Recession moderates inflation
According to what executives of the refineries said, the Minister of Economy,
Luis Caputo, asked the companies at the end of January to moderate the pace of increases
, in order to show inflation in sustained decline.
Between the October elections and February 1, fuel prices rose between 175% and 200% , with a
shortage
crisis
in between.
The increase in gasoline and diesel is part of a monthly schedule in which taxes were partially unfrozen, which had not been updated since October 2022.
The increases will continue until June, inclusive
.
This time, as reported by Economía at the beginning of February, the gross increase will be $32.89 per liter of gasoline and $31.64 for diesel;
but since both products are mixed with biofuels - which are exempt -, the net impact will be $28.94 and $29.27, respectively, according to the tables published by the
Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP)
.
In April there will be another gross adjustment (without the biofuel discount) of $34 and in May, of $70, corresponding to the inflation update of the tax, which should now be applied in March.
Finally, in June the scheme should be finalized with the transfer of inflation from the first quarter of this year.
A report from the
Argentine Confederation of Workers and Employees of Hydrocarbons, Energy, Fuels, Derivatives and Related Products (CATHEDA)
estimated that
revenue from the fuel tax
would jump from $526 billion in 2023 to more than
$3.8 trillion. this year
, which would add the equivalent of about 0.5 percentage points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or
10% of the fiscal adjustment proposed by the government of Javier Milei
.
S.N.