The need to lower inflation is an essential and pressing aspect for the economy.
Economists
estimate that this result will only be seen towards the second half of the year.
From the consulting firm MAP Economic & Business Advisors, they assure that “lowering inflation is key, not only for social and political issues but also because achieving progress in the fight against inflation places the Government in a better situation vis-à-vis the opposition, providing it with greater ability to negotiate support, they explain.
"The downward path of prices is essential
to decompress the pressure on the BCRA's monetary policy and to contain devaluation expectations
," they say.
According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA), inflation expectations suggest a slower moderation of prices, with
a convergence to 10% only in May/June.
From MAP they observe that "the implementation of a comprehensive and consistent stabilization plan results in a recovery and
disinflation process from the second half of the year."
The estimate is given under the assumption that the Government will maintain a managed floating scheme, although with a monthly devaluation rate still below the rate of advance of prices, although rising to avoid a rapid appreciation of the real exchange rate. .
They anticipate a new jump in the exchange rate, of approximately 20% monthly in the month of April.
In terms of inflation, and after the January data that showed an increase of 20.6%, the consulting firm continues to project double-digit rates for the next quarter.
"To the extent that the fiscal and monetary adjustments work,
prices would begin to moderate from May/June of this year, closing the year at levels just below those of 2023
(194.5% in December of this year).
Economist Ricardo Delgado, head of the consulting firm Analytica, explains when asked about the issue: “rather than wondering when inflation is going to be in the single digits, we have to ask how," he says. "How is this Government going to sustain a draconian adjustment? fiscal, this violent monetary squeeze and fall in economic activity.
If achieved,
the goal of achieving the price index in single digits could arrive in June or July
. "
This would happen in the following context, Delgado warns: with the Central Bank buying foreign currency to pay for these purchases, and interests and remunerated liabilities that are becoming less and less;
absorbing pesos through Treasury operations, that is, taking the pesos out of circulation.
In the short term, this consulting firm estimates that
in February, inflation will increase around 15%
, and that in March the slowdown will surely stop due to a seasonal issue.
According to the consulting firm Equilibra, directed by economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, “if the Government manages to sustain crawling (the gradual adjustment of the exchange rate) at 2% monthly, during the second quarter of the year,
inflation could drop to one digit monthly once the adjustment of public service rates has been made
, which would allow the purchasing power of labor income to be recomposed.
But since the real exchange rate is already close to equilibrium levels according to the FM staff, the only way for inflation to return to the monthly digit in the short term is by incurring a significant exchange rate delay.
Otherwise, if the Executive consolidates the fiscal adjustment and finishes ordering relative prices without delaying the exchange rate too much, "it is likely that green shoots will begin to be observed in the Spring. But if the economy does not finish stabilizing, the recovery would be arduous and slow," Equilibra warned.