Luis Caputo's "exchange summer" continues and the financial dollar fell again this Tuesday:
the cash with liquid fell another 1%, closing at $1,087
, which led to the gap with the official dollar to
pierce 30%
, its value lowest since last January 3.
In the city they believe that, if the monthly crawling peg pattern of 2% is maintained,
the gap could contract even more
.
Thus, since Javier Milei arrived at the Casa Rosada, the
gap has narrowed by more than 150 percentage points
, first forced by the jump in the exchange rate on December 13, which contracted it
"from the floor"
and then by the effects of the change in monetary policy that Caputo implemented together with the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili, which served to change the dynamics of the exchange market.
On the one hand, the policy of
liquefaction of savings
, with negative rates with respect to inflation and lower monetary issue, forces families and companies to get rid of their positions in dollars in order to respond to their needs in pesos, which increases the supply in the parallel market.
This is also favored by the "blend" export dollar, which allows 20% of settlements to be made in the financial market.
At the same time, demand from the importing sector in the parallel market migrated towards the official segment as the Central Bank
normalized access to the dollar for these companies.
This has not yet been felt strongly, but it has taken pressure off the financial market.
In the MULC, the Central bought another US$ 142 million this Tuesday, which serves to total purchases of US$ 8,530 million since December.
Thus, the exchange gap maintains a bearish logic for now that could extend throughout the remainder of the first quarter of the year.
Martín Polo, strategist at Cohen, stated: "We believe that until April the gap should remain under downward pressure or at least stable, because we are in a context of excess supply in the parallel market, while a large part of that demand that one feared, that it was one of the importers because of the overdue debt, it could not overcome the effect of that offer.
For his part,
Sebastián Menescaldi
, from Eco Go, warned: "Today we see this approach of exchange rates, in a context where
financial repression
did not change with respect to what Massa had done at the time. That is,
the whole trap "Almost everything is fully operational."
Analysts believe that the gap can still shrink further, but that
exchange rate unification is still a distant scenario.
"It is good news that, in the midst of the political noise, the exchange gap continues to decrease or remains at a floor of 25%, but it is not enough to talk about a possible exchange rate unification. On the one hand, the Central Bank managed to buy reserves because Imports are still paid in installments. On the other hand, there are still too many pesos in circulation to allow us to think about opening the stocks," said
Martín Polo,
from Cohen.
Along these lines,
Adrián Yarde Buller,
of Facimex Valores, pointed out: "Unifying the exchange market with negative net reserves is difficult even though the exchange rate gap is low, because it would imply living with a flexible exchange rate without a nominal anchor to The expectations".
Finally, Menescaldi stated: "I still do not see that we are approaching unification. All this also taking into account that there is no financial stability, there is no confidence in the peso, the reserves are still negative. The truth is that there are many things and many uncertainties that also follow".