Industry activity will fall by at least 4% in 2024
due to the lower performance of sectors linked to domestic consumption and public works, according to projections made by the Study Center (CEU) of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).
According to the report of the manufacturing entity,
2023 ended with a variation close to zero (0.3%)
, thus interrupting "the recovery process that the industry had had in 2021 and 2022 after the pandemic and the macroeconomic crisis of the years 2018-2019-2020".
According to the UIA, the industry grew in three of the four years of the previous government.
It only fell in 2020 of the pandemic.
In 2023 it grew DESPITE the fact that in December, already with Milei, it fell 8.3%.
Let's save this to see what happens with industry and employment in the months and years to come.
pic.twitter.com/Q4u1RRFAHd
— Vasco de Mendiguren (@dmvasco) February 28, 2024
In December, activity in factories registered a drop of 8.3% year-on-year
and 6.4% monthly without seasonality.
Former Secretary of Industry,
José Ignacio "Vasco" De Mendiguren
, wrote on Twitter that "according to the UIA,
the industry grew in three of the four years of the previous government
. It only fell in 2020 due to the pandemic. In 2023 it grew despite that in December, already with Milei, it fell 8.3%. Let's save this to see what happens with industry and employment in the months and years to come."
The publication was replicated by former president Alberto Fernández
on his return to the social network to highlight positive data at the macroeconomic level of his administration.
Neither De Mendiguren nor Fernández, however, commented on last week's INDEC activity data on the progress of the economy in 2023: GDP fell 1.6% on average and between 2019 and 2023 GDP per inhabitant fell more than 1% .
Business expectations
Regarding the first month of this year, the UIA's advance data showed a lower performance by the industry, with a deepening of the decline in several sectors.
"Likewise, from the survey carried out on more than 700 companies, the data obtained in the I 2024 UIA Survey reflected this lower industrial performance. A predominance of companies with falls in production levels, sales to the domestic market, exports and employment," the entity said.
The rest of the year will continue with a similar trend.
The prospects are then for a drop in production, a magnitude that will depend on the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables.
In the document, the UIA specified that for 2024 "the base scenario contemplates a drop in industrial activity of at least -4% year-on-year for the year, which is explained by the
lower performance of the sectors linked to domestic consumption and construction. public
and the lack of export incentives".
"At the same time, the impact on the costs of the rate increase, the increase in the PAIS tax and the lack of financing tools is expected. This trend would be partially offset by the recovery of sectors linked to agribusiness, the oil and mining sector. "he added.