The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT)
increased 1.2% compared to the January measurement.
It is the first increase since Javier Milei took office after two consecutive falls.
Despite this month's rise, the index registers a year-on-year decrease of 0.39%.
In January,
the same index had plummeted 10.2% and had plunged 16.2% in December.
This record of increased consumer confidence occurs at the same time as an increase in inflation estimated at 15% for this month.
In EcoGo's survey,
inflation is set to close the month at 15.9%,
practically five percentage points below the 20.6% that INDEC recorded in January.
For the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, the record for the month is 16.8%.
At the same time, the recession deepens.
According to the Orlando Ferreres y Asociados activity estimator,
there was a 3.8% drop in January.
"The government plan, in an environment of currency shortage, will have
recessionary effects in the first months of 2024,
and the numbers will only improve when the thick harvest arrives. In this way, a more substantial improvement will only happen if inflation is reduced and exchange controls are eliminated," they point out.
UTDT Consumer Confidence Index
In the UTDT index the increase in confidence was not generalized.
In the Interior the monthly increase was 6.9% and in CABA it was 3.11%, but
in the GBA a fall of 3.18% was recorded.
By educational level, a proxy for income level, there is a monthly increase of 5.7% for individuals with a higher educational level, and
a drop of 1.44% for those with a low level.
Among the subindices that make up the CCI, the increase is mainly due to Durable Goods and Real Estate, which rose 15.7% compared to the previous month, while the Macroeconomic Situation subindex remained stable, -0.22% and the Personal
Situation fell 2 .19%, always compared to the previous month.
Finally, perceptions regarding the term show that Present Conditions increased by 3%, and Future Expectations increased by 0.6%, always compared to the month of January.
Less trust in the president
The curious thing is that this rebound in consumer confidence occurs at the same time that another survey also carried out by the UTDT shows that
confidence in the government is declining.
In the last month,
trust in President Javier Milei fell 1.4%
, according to the Government Trust Index (ICG) of the UTDT School of Government.
This decline was accentuated among young people and people with less education: the drop reached 27.2%
, against 2.6% in the segment between 30-49 years old and 9.2% among those over 50 years old. .
The current level of trust is 10.1% lower than the measurement in February 2016 at the beginning of Mauricio Macri's government, and 13.3% higher than the measurement in February 2020, at the beginning of Alberto Fernández's administration.
Comparing starting periods, the average value of the GCI in the period December 2023 to February 2024 is
3.1% higher
than the average value registered between December 2016 and February 2017 (first months of the Macri administration) and
22. 6% higher
than the average value registered between December 2019 and February 2020 (first months of the Fernández administration).
In relation to the level of education,
the drop is 33.6% in the segment with primary education,
against a drop of 15.9% in the group that reached secondary education and 3.1% in the segment that reached tertiary and/or university studies.
The variation of the GCI compared to January
was negative in four of its five components:
General evaluation of the government (-5.1%), Concern for the general interest (-4.8%), Efficiency in the administration of public spending (- 0.1%), Ability to solve the country's problems (-1.6%).
Finally, the variation of the ICG compared to January was positive in the measurement of the Honesty of officials (3.7%).
As in December and January,
the February GCI registered its highest value among those who live in the interior (2.86 points, with an increase of 1%)
.
Next are those who reside in CABA (2.28 points, with a drop of 5%) and finally, those who reside in GBA (2.08 points, with a decrease of 5%).