In the labyrinth of personal investments to mitigate the loss of purchasing power, so far this year
those who bet on the pesos have been beating those who decided on the dollar.
Until now, both continue to lose against inflation, which
would have closed February at around 15%
.
But contrary to the Argentine temptation to always bet on the dollar, those who made a fixed term in pesos in the month that just ended are the ones who took the victory.
Fernando Marull, director of the consulting firm FMyA, points out that "
fixed-term rates yielded 9.1% monthly
and although they lost with inflation, they beat the dollar and the rest of the investments in pesos in February."
Trader Adrián Wibly also noted in his X network account that "February 2024 was an excellent month for #CarryTrade."
In that month, the MEP dollar fell -12.5% and the fixed term in pesos yielded 8.8%, which allowed for
a gain in dollars of 24.3%.
Those who managed to bet on the UVA fixed term before the conditions changed - before the change of government these placements that adjust for inflation plus an extra point had an extension of three months, now the minimum was raised to six months -
achieved a return of 22.3% and a profit in dollars of 39.7%.
"The UVA fixed term made on 01/16 is 55% up in dollars
," says Wibly.
On the other hand, from PPI they point out that "
the Merval closed a month to be forgotten.
During February the index contracted 4.0% to US$ 958. Measured in pesos, the leading panel collapsed 19.5%, with papers which fell more than 30% such as Transportadora Gas del Norte (-33.3%), Central Puerto (-30.2%) and Cresud (-29.0%). Only Comercial del Plata (+9.0%) ended the month was positive and Banco Macro (-0.8%) closed almost unchanged thanks to the strong rise after the balance sheet presentation. The financial sector was the most defensive during the second month of the year, showing declines between - 16.5% and -0.8% while public and energy services were the hardest hit, with the aforementioned exception of COME."
"Hand in hand with a strong exchange rate appreciation, the Merval measured in dollars has remained stable, in a context in which assets in the local stock market have plummeted considerably. The market always gets ahead and, in the case of stocks locals,
the change of government was incorporated into the prices before the new administration took office
. Since then, and until there are new positive drivers, it is possible that the oscillations at these levels will continue, with large jumps and falls, since "Volatility is an intrinsic feature of the local market."
For their part, ADRs, Argentine stocks listed in New York,
also had a month with negative numbers.
Of 19, only 5 ended February in green: Banco Macro (+20.77%), VISTA (+12.50%), BBAR (+5.06%), Galicia (+2.34%) and YPF (+ 0.09%).
In the other cases, deep falls are observed: Edenor (-16.33%), Central Puerto (-15.68%) and Cresud (-14.61%) were the ones that lost the most in February.