Javier Milei's promise to abandon the stocks in the near future renewed expectations in the private sector.
The economic team felt this in the
meetings and contacts
that it had in recent weeks with different sectors, all
interested in being the first to benefit from an eventual relaxation
of exchange and financial restrictions.
One of those informal exchanges took place last week, when
exporters
inquired about the possibility of some relaxation in capital controls and the economic authorities responded that "there will be no changes for now."
A less optimistic definition than the one the President outlined in Congress on Friday and ratified this Tuesday at ExpoAgro.
"
The idea is to lift it as soon as possible
, as soon as we finish cleaning up the Central Bank's imbalance we are going to lift it," something that could happen
in the middle of the year
, Milei said after giving a speech at the business fair.
This opening, which is also discussed with the Monetary Fund, fuels all kinds of speculation at this time.
In the case of
cereal companies
, one of the main
suppliers of foreign currency
, they believe that these types of announcements from the head of state generate expectations of "improvements" in the exchange rate and
paralyze grain sales for export.
"So I hope they do it soon because otherwise it will be difficult to operate ports and milling factories without grains," said an industry source.
Within the Ministry of Economy they are surprised by the recent rise in dollar bonds, the reduction of the exchange gap to 20% and the purchase of US$ 8.7 billion in reserves since the change in management.
The improvement in the financial scenario, sustained by the strong liquefaction of pesos
and debt in dollars with importers, opens a window to begin releasing flows.
"
When the harvest comes, we will evaluate the conditions and see if we will start to touch the stocks
," officials say in private meetings.
That deadline is April/May, which is when exporters begin to liquidate part of the US$31 billion sales projected by the Rosario Stock Exchange for 2024. Luis Caputo's order to his team is to
move "carefully." ".
The Government is committed to calibrating the strict fiscal adjustment and the liquefaction of income, which induces a slowdown in inflation, with a
rebound in the economy in the second half of the year
and
the flexibility of the stocks,
which in turn should lead to a
exchange rate unification
.
A whole clockwork mechanism that is still exposed to significant
risks
.
Net reserves remain negative and the BCRA maintains the devaluation rate of 2% per month while inflation is around 15% per month, which
has appreciated the official dollar.
In other words,
December's $800 today is equivalent to $536.
For Domingo Cavallo, the drop in inflation is an opportunity to accelerate the dollar and avoid a new devaluation, but Caputo has not yet shown signs of following that path.
"Without exports showing a significant rebound - the liquidation of exports does not take off and only improves marginally - the BCRA takes advantage of the drop in imports due to recession and the payment in four installments that must be made for new purchases from abroad. This is what leaves you a great opportunity to buy currencies and recover reserves," said
Martín Polo
, Cohen's chief strategist.
Meeting with funds
The opening of the stocks was also on the table in the meeting held at the end of February by the common investment fund chamber (FCI) with the National Securities Commission (CNV).
"It was a protocol meeting, the chamber consulted about an exit from the restrictions and they were told that this was decided by the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank," official sources said.
Now,
funds and banks are seeking for Caputo to release stock market operations
and only then the exchange market to exporters, importers and firms.
The idea is to repeal a dozen regulations, such as the limitation on the holding of foreign currency deposits in the FCI portfolio and the limit on trading US$200,000 on the stock market in one day, without prior information to the CNV.
Tourism
is another sector that asks to loosen the turnstile
.
An important company polled the Government to authorize the payment of tickets with dollars.
Today, trips abroad are paid in pesos by card at the tourist exchange rate ($1,382), but some agencies agree to payment in dollars, which
implies a saving
of 25% at the value of the MEP or the blue ($1,010). and less collection of the COUNTRY and Profits tax.
NE