A little less than three months after the arrival of
Javier Milei
to the Casa Rosada,
investors
who in the run-up to the presidential change had sought
to dollarize at any cost are now
asking themselves
, following the abrupt fall in the parallel exchange rate in February,
whether to take advantage of this decline
to once again cover itself against a possible exchange rate jump or
gain with the rate in pesos.
Last month the parallel dollar fell to almost 14%
, which
depreciated the savings
of those who went out to dollarize at any cost in November and December.
"Hand in hand with the real appreciation of our currency,
all bets in pesos paid off in dollars.
The only exception was equities, which were exposed to a correction in hard currency," explained Nery Persichini of GMA Capital.
Within the universe of investments in local currency,
those tied to inflation were the
undisputed winners "The CER benchmark in February increased 22% in pesos and 47% in dollars, leaving the rest of the alternatives far behind. The few lucky owners of
UVA fixed terms
, the vehicle most reserved by banks, were the only ones that could exploit the potential of the acceleration of inflation," Persichini explained.
Going forward, although the market seems to be convinced that the
devaluation of the peso
and
exchange rate unification
are further away than expected days ago, the unknown remains, especially in a context where "the benefit" of the last exchange rate jump in December has already evaporated. against the inflation of recent months.
Juan Manuel Franco, of the SBS Group, noted: "In terms of
pesos,
we believe that the
short tranche of CER
is not attractive at these levels and we prefer the
medium tranche
, which we believe will better capture relative price adjustments, given that the implicit inflation in bonds looks low for some months despite the dampening effect of the recession and the erosion of real incomes.
"As for
dollar linked bonds,
we believe that an exchange rate unification will eventually take place, although the Government could avoid the discrete jump in the face of the heavy harvest, which is why
we prefer positions from 2025 onwards,"
he said.
"It is the strict exchange controls that in our opinion maintain the parities of the bonds in pesos, so indications about a potential exchange rate unification, reducing/eliminating controls, could imply capital losses," Franco highlighted.
Although the returns on
investments in pesos are attractive
in this flat dollar scenario, analysts recommend caution.
"The CCL has accumulated an appreciation of 30%
since the highs reached on January 22, reaching levels at the end of 2019, which suggests being cautious in positioning in pesos to carry ,
"
they said in the IEB Group.
In addition, they noted: "The rate differential between the CER bonds with negative rates and
hard
dollar bonds with positive rates of 30% plays in favor of the dollarization of the portfolio, although in the short term there may still be room to make rates already that the supply of exporters in the CCL, encouraged to liquidate due to the gap at levels of 27%, could continue to keep CCL stable".
For their part, Cohen's strategy team considered the
opportunity to invest in pesos in
high-quality corporate bonds.
"For the most conservative investments we suggest the risks in TGS 2025 (IRR 10%), Pampa in 2027 (IRR 10%) and YPF guaranteed in 2026 (IRR 9%) and 2031 (IRR 9%). For somewhat more moderate profiles, We recommend Mastellone 2026 (IRR 10%) and Aeropuertos Argentina at 2027 (IRR 10%)", they said.
S.N.