The Government's fiscal stability path once again faces the PP veto in the Senate

New obstacle on the road to the 2024 Budget. The Government once again presents the debt and public deficit objectives in the Senate this Wednesday, the same ones that the upper house backed down last February, where the PP has an absolute majority.

The procedure is essential to advance in the design of public accounts for this year, which are two months late.

The Executive has already announced that it has an ace up its sleeve if it suffers another — foreseeable — second setback: the stability path sent last spring to Brussels, more severe for communities and city councils, would come into force.

In this case—and provided that sufficient political support is achieved in the process—the deadlines would be further extended on a calendar that is already long behind schedule due to the early elections.

At the end of last December, the Government laid the two first stones to design the 2024 Budget, with the approval of the stability path - the deficit and debt objectives for future years - and the spending ceiling - a limit above of which the State cannot spend.

These procedures were already months late.

Normally, they are given the green light during the summer to comply with the deadline set by the Constitution: that the Budget project is presented before September 30 of each year so that they are approved before December 31.

Then, the head of the Treasury, María Jesús Montero, assured that she was confident in having the accounts ready for the first quarter of the year, a goal that is now blurred.

The path of fiscal stability must obtain the

yes

of Congress and the Senate.

In the lower house, the coalition government has the support of the investiture bloc, which has already given its support twice in the last month to the budgetary objectives, which foresee a deficit of 3% of GDP in 2024, of 2, 7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The obstacle is in the Senate, where the PP refuses to endorse the procedure.

Faced with this impediment, the Government assures that it has a report from the State Attorney's Office, the content of which has not yet been made public - the PP even doubts its existence - and that would allow the adoption of the objectives contained in the Stability Program sent last year. April to the European Commission.

These are somewhat more severe for the communities, mostly governed by the PP, which should close the year in balance with the new goals - facing a deficit of 0.1% -, and local entities - surplus instead of a deficit of 0%—.

The damage to the autonomous communities and city councils would not be dramatic either because this year they have more resources than ever.

With this stratagem, the government coalition hopes to avoid the popular blockade and move forward with the design of accounts that, beyond their importance for the functioning of the administrations, represent an enormous political challenge in the face of a very fragmented parliamentary arc and a majority weak.

Give up accounts

A new setback in the Senate would mean extending the deadline to present the 2024 Budget project somewhat further, which would foreseeably slide until April.

Then the period for appearances, debates and presentation of amendments in the chambers would begin.

In past years, just over 80 days have passed on average between the registration of the project in Congress and its approval.

During the pandemic, procedures were cut to the maximum and the times were reduced to just over two months.

Although the PP is expected to delay the process in the Senate.

Even so, the accounts would not be ready before June, when work would have to begin on those for the following year.

Treasury sources recall that the 2018 accounts were approved in the first week of July of that same year, they are the latest in memory.

Another option is for the Executive to give up designing this year's Budgets and move the ball forward.

It already happened in 2020, although in a very different context: the Government decided to dispense with the accounts for the year and get to work on those for the following year due to the outbreak of the pandemic.

Then the economy was entering the unknown, and the Government had greater parliamentary support than it has now.

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