Argentines have once again taken more than US$2.3 billion to the banks since Javier Milei assumed the Presidency on December 10, "which reflects an incipient optimism about his Government," analyzed the
Bloomberg
news agency .
The
jump of almost 17%,
to US$16.4 billion, means that dollar deposits in Milei's first three months
completely recovered last year's losses,
according to Central Bank data.
The dollars that Argentines keep in the financial system are an
informal thermometer of political risk
, since people tend to withdraw money during periods of volatility and deposit savings in more stable times.
That is why they had fallen sharply in October and November of last year, during the election months.
In the PASO, deposits in dollars were at US$ 15.2 billion and in October they had already dropped to US$ 14.6 billion.
If the trend continues, it would be good news for the Central Bank, since
a part of savers' dollar deposits are accounted for within the
international reserves which, despite the monetary entity's dollar purchases, still remain negative. .
Savings in dollars
tend to rebound at the end of the year
in Argentina for tax reasons (since to pay for Personal Assets the photo of December 31 is taken and dollars in savings accounts do not pay the tax).
That is why the rise in deposits had a seasonal reason in part.
Dollar deposits fell from a peak of around $32.5 billion in 2019 after Milei's predecessor, Alberto Fernández, won the primary election that year.
The surprise result
generated panic
over the return of a Peronist government and heralded the end of former President Mauricio Macri's market-friendly administration.
In Argentina, checking accounts are denominated in pesos while savings accounts can be denominated in dollars.
However, due to the restrictions, only some savers can buy US$200 per month and with taxes.
For this reason, in general people are inclined to purchase the MEP or Bolsa dollar, which is cheaper than the savings dollar and, unlike the blue, is legal.