Concerned about inflation that will continue to be high in February (15% is expected on Tuesday), the Government will keep
the dollar well behind the rise in prices and rates will continue in negative territory,
while it hopes that companies will relax with the remarking of prices.
That was the message that the team led by Luis Caputo sent to the private sector in recent days.
Although the Minister of Economy keeps the path that the official dollar will follow under lock and key, last Thursday he shared some graphs with the CEOs of 17 mass consumption manufacturers to show them a projection of the exchange rate.
"Caputo made a projection of the dollar to say that
it will be cheaper than what food companies estimate,"
official sources said.
In this way, the official confirmed that the rate of devaluation (today, 2% monthly)
will be less than the rise in the CPI,
at a time when businessmen are asking him for a roadmap to get out of the trap.
He also showed the fall of the dollar, the repurchase of reserves, the rise of bonds and the reduction of the deficit.
The CEOs were not able to take a copy, but it was clear to them that
they should not expect "any exchange rate jump."
On the other hand, since last week rumors began to circulate of a new cut in the Central Bank's reference rate from the current level, which today
runs below
expected inflation (at 8.33% nominal).
For some economists, the measure would serve to shore up private credit or to continue the liquefaction of pesos.
From the economic team
they assure that "there is nothing."
Milei's strategy is
to stabilize the economy with fiscal adjustment
, liquefaction, the accumulation of reserves, the validity - for now - of the stocks and the recession, which pushes private companies to sell dollars and lower prices.
The latest inflation measurements, however, raised alarm bells in official offices, particularly the sharp rise in food prices above average.
According to LCG, food
rose 3.6% weekly
in the first week of March, accelerating 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous week, while the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL) recorded a rebound of 5.7% in the last 7 days in the City, which implies a still high average monthly inflation.
And in March,
the decline could stop.
Caputo pulled the rug out from under food manufacturers last Thursday, after reminding them of the concessions to the sector with the elimination of price, import (SIRAs and SIRASE) and packaging (SIFIRE) controls.
"
Don't keep setting sail,
we see that they rise a lot every month, that was the message we read," said a businessman.
This dynamic puts pressure on the exchange rate, since by April almost all of the exchange advantage generated by the December devaluation would be lost and in recent months Argentine goods and services have become significantly more expensive, with a parallel dollar below $1,000.
But the Government for now
prefers to avoid a devaluation or an acceleration of the exchange rate to anchor prices.